China's PV market status and development trend in 2015

The status quo is sad and happy

Four words are used to describe the solar photovoltaic industry in 2014, which is “ups and downs” and is not a year of recovery.

According to the report of Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, “Review of China's Photovoltaic Industry in 2014 and Outlook for 2015”, the scale of China's PV industry continues to expand and the industry's overall development is getting better. In 2014, China's polysilicon production reached 132,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 57%; wafer production reached 38GW, an increase of 28%; battery production reached 33GW, an increase of 32%; component production reached 35GW, an increase of 27.2%. The gross profit margin of the backbone enterprises mostly returned to double digits, and the business conditions of the enterprises were significantly improved. All the links in the industry chain have entered the top ten in the world, such as polysilicon (4), silicon (8), battery (5-6), components (5~6), and the first place For Chinese companies.

It is understood that in 2014, the total shipments of 20 leading supplier components accounted for 68% of global demand, higher than 60% in 2011. It is worth noting that the shipments of China Trina Solar and Yingli Green Energy Components are both over 3GW.

In terms of photovoltaic EPC, from China's second in 2012 to China's first in 2013, the second in the world, and the first in the world in 2014, TBEA Xinjiang New Energy Co., Ltd. successfully completed its own PV EPC. Business jumps. While maintaining a steady growth momentum, the 1.5 GW contracted installation volume has surpassed the FirstSolar1.3GW engineering volume and ranked first in the world.

At the same time, the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2014 is always accompanied by controversy.

In addition to the technical route between crystalline silicon and thin film power generation, in 2014, distributed photovoltaic is undoubtedly the most beautiful and controversial. I still remember that from the beginning of the year, the view that "2014 will usher in the first year of distributed photovoltaic power plant construction" has taken root. Today, it is not a denial. It is a pity that at the National Energy Work Conference held in January 2014, the Energy Bureau The target of new PV installations is locked at 14GW, including 6GW for ground power stations and 8GW for distributed power stations. The dispute has never stopped. According to relevant data, the cumulative installed PV installation in China was over 5GW. Moreover, it is not difficult to find that in the cumulative total amount of accumulated completion, the contribution of the “Golden Sun” project is about 2/3, and there are very few distributed projects that are completely invested in marketization. After canceling the "Golden Sun" demonstration project, the goal of distributed "heads-up" 8GW is hard. In fact, the industry's failure to complete the 14GW target is not too surprising.

On December 11, 2014 and January 22, 2015, the US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission announced the results of the second final ruling on China's PV dual-reverse case, and determined that crystalline silicon photovoltaic products imported from China constitute a US industry. In case of substantial damage, the US Customs will levy "double-reverse" tariffs on related products in mainland China and impose anti-dumping duties on Taiwan-related products. This is the second time that the United States has been “double-reverse” to Chinese PV products since 2011. Not only the United States, India, Australia, Canada, etc. have also launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against China PV, and the trade situation is worrying.

The foreign market is uncertain, the domestic market environment needs to be improved, the technology development still has gaps, the standard testing and certification system needs to be improved, and the “incremental increase does not increase” situation is still continuing, policy implementation is not in place, financing loans are difficult, and brain drain is lost. Seriously, these are the challenges facing China's photovoltaic industry.

Opportunities and challenges coexist

Some insiders describe the current situation faced by PV companies: the photovoltaic industry is like a "fly in a glass bottle", and its future is bright and unpredictable in the future.

2015 is the last year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. This is a new and old year, a significant year, especially for photovoltaics.

At the end of 2014, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a heavy document supporting the development of photovoltaics. "Opinions on Further Optimizing the Market Environment for the Merger and Reorganization of Photovoltaic Enterprises" proposed that by the end of 2017, a number of backbone photovoltaic enterprises with strong international competitiveness will be formed. Supporting the formation of 15 PV giants. More experts said, "After fierce market competition, the photovoltaic industry in the next few years will certainly be the market share of more than 80% of the photovoltaic oligopoly, and the reshuffle of the photovoltaic industry will be further accelerated." Although the issue of industry attributes, the valuation problems brought about by similar technologies, the intervention of local governments, and the “resource exchange project” will plague the merger and reorganization of photovoltaic enterprises, on the other hand, the “Opinions” were introduced for the photovoltaic industry in 2015. Words are also a good start.

In January 2015, the National Energy Administration issued the “2015 National Photovoltaic Power Generation Annual Plan for Newly Established Grid Scale Table” (Draft for Comment), and plans to increase the grid-connected scale of 15GW for the 2015 National PV Annual Plan, of which 8GW is the centralized power station. The distributed 7GW, the installed target is 1GW higher than last year, but compared with the actual installed capacity in 2014, the large amount of grid connection to 15GW is surprising enough, which will be a big challenge for the industry. At the same time, according to the deployment of the Energy Bureau, this year will formulate the “13th Five-Year Plan” for PV development.

According to incomplete statistics, in 2014, the Chinese government has accumulated more than 30 policies for the photovoltaic industry (national ministries and commissions). In addition, State Grid will release a new version of PV distributed grid-connected technology guidance in 2015 to fully support the development of distributed PV. Benefiting from the Chinese policy, in 2015, the leading domestic power station developers such as China Power Investment Corporation, China Guodian, GCL New Energy, Jiangshan Holdings, Shunfeng Optoelectronics, United Photovoltaics, TBEA, Neutral Tenghui and other New Year plans all exceeded 1GW. Enterprises up to 2GW or more.

After the decentralization of photovoltaic power generation approval, speculation has increased the cost of photovoltaic power generation and increased the burden on enterprises. Since October 2014, the state has continuously issued articles to curb road speculation, regulate market order, and created conditions for the development of photovoltaics in 2015.

In addition, the renewable energy quota system is expected to be introduced in the first half of 2015. The quota system will force the proportion of new energy sources for power generation enterprises. At the same time, the grid companies will also need to meet certain proportions to purchase renewable energy power generation. This will enhance the understanding of the importance of renewable energy power generation and, to a certain extent, alleviate the problem of access to the Internet.

In addition, the replacement of the Energy Bureau has brought unlimited imagination and expectations to the policy aspects of 2015. On the last day of 2014 (December 31), the media revealed that the former secretary of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Party Committee and the government's president, Nuer Becker, officially succeeded Wu Xinxiong as the director of the National Energy Administration. The National Energy Administration, established in 2008, has had three directors, namely Zhang Guobao, Liu Tienan and Wu Xinxiong. "The new official took up three fires." Nur Becky, who served as the chairman of the autonomous region in Xinjiang, where natural resources are abundant, has accumulated rich experience in the deployment and use of natural resources, diplomatic experience, and the core area of ​​the Silk Road Economic Belt. "Building experience, what is the difference in the new stage of the National Energy Administration? What kind of opportunities will the photovoltaic industry have?"

Forecast outlook

All kinds of messages show that 2015 will be a great development year for China's photovoltaic industry, and it is also a challenging year. The photovoltaic industry has passed the "most difficult period" and is in a new stage of development. Under the favorable policies, will China's PV industry develop as expected? What new changes will occur in the future PV market?

Nirvana is reborn and gorgeous

In the words of Wang Wei, director of the Beijing Energy Development Research Base of North China Electric Power University, the theme of 2015 is “Nirvana Reborn and Gorgeous Transformation”. From a quantitative perspective, China's PV scale has been the world's number one in the past, and it is expected to remain the number one for some time to come. From the product market, since 2007, China's PV module sales have always been the world's number one. From the perspective of the annual power station construction market, the total construction of China's photovoltaic power plants in 2013 was more than 10 GW, which is expected to be slightly higher than this in 2014. This has made China the largest country in the world in photovoltaic power plants for two consecutive years. In 2015, the global demand for photovoltaic products will reach 58GW. With the improvement of the competitiveness of China's PV processing enterprises and the potential capacity recovery brought about by the deepening of industrial integration, it is possible to maintain a 60% global market share of PV module sales in China, and a small increase is also expected. If supplemented by policy guidance, China's photovoltaic manufacturing technology will be steadily improved, both in terms of technological advancement with conversion rate as the core and in the manufacture of key equipment such as cutting machines.

China will become the world's largest solar market in 2015

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance's project database, China has become the world's second largest PV application market after Germany. In view of the continuous decline in solar power generation costs, global PV installations are expected to increase by 16%-25% in 2015, ranging from 53-57GW. Geographically, the largest market in 2015 is still China, Japan and the United States. In terms of China, the United States and India will be in the top three.

Installed or over 16GW

The National Energy Administration issued the "Letter on Soliciting Opinions on the Implementation Plan for the Construction of Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2015". The document not only pointed out that the target of grid-connected capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in 2015 was 15GW. It also encouraged local governments to deploy projects in a competitive manner and promote the decline of electricity prices. It is expected to promote a certain scale of grabbing.

It is estimated that the installed capacity of PV new construction in 2015 will exceed 16GW (or even reach 18GW), an increase of more than 60%. In 2014, the filing scale was 14 GW, and the Energy Bureau's statistical result for new grid-connected PV installations in 2014 was 10.3 GW. This means that more than 3GW of projects have not been connected to the grid or have not yet started construction, and some projects will be carried over to 2015.

The initiative of the core technology and equipment of the photovoltaic industry is gradually turning to China

This is based on two reasons: First, the pattern of China's PV products occupying 60% of the global market space is basically determined. As the world's most powerful photovoltaic processing industry, the continuous improvement of the technical level has internal motivations and sufficient conditions, and today's world. The first Chinese high-speed rail technology. Secondly, the integration of the photovoltaic industry has reached the most cruel stage, stimulating competitive enterprises to improve their competitiveness only by continuously improving their technological competitiveness.

Investment and financing environment is getting better

In the photovoltaic terminal market, due to the relative determination of the scale and revenue space in the future, equity capital is flooding in. The credit funds such as trusts and financial leasing begin to enter, and bank credit funds will run in the morning and evening. In the upstream and downstream markets of photovoltaics, there will be competition. The company's income level will rise steadily, and financial institutions such as banks will provide differentiated industrial financing services.

Trade friction or mass attack in 2015

It was learned from the Ministry of Commerce that from January to November 2014, 85 foreign-related trade remedy investigations were initiated abroad, down 13.3% year-on-year; among them, 52 were anti-dumping investigations, down 23.5% year-on-year; 12 were countervailing investigations, up 9.1% year-on-year; The number of measures surveyed was 21, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. In recent years, China's photovoltaic products have been subjected to “double-reverse” investigations by developed countries such as Europe and the United States. The amount is huge, and there are many enterprises involved in the case, which has laid a shadow for the development of China's new energy industry. Some experts predict that China's export products may face a new wave of anti-dumping and countervailing investigations in 2015.

US media: China or monopoly photovoltaic industry

According to the US "Forbes" magazine reported on January 15, the United States has always believed that the photovoltaic industry can eliminate the energy monopoly, energy independence is also a very important one in the US energy policy. However, in the face of the strong Chinese PV industry, the United States is also worried that China may become the "Opek of the photovoltaic industry" and thus monopolize. “A monopoly in China is not only bad for consumers, but many startups will not survive.”

【to sum up】

At the beginning of 2014, 14GW and 10GW, 6GW of ground power station and 8GW of distributed power station, even if it is the statistics of installed capacity at the end of the year, it is also “still half-faced”. In 2014, the newly installed PV installed capacity was 10.52GW?8.17 GW? or 7.1GW? It is not 14GW. But this does not hinder the development and implementation of the 2015 15GW target.

Looking forward to 2015, China's photovoltaic industry does not lack policies, no shortage of markets, no shortage of people's wealth, and no shortage of production capacity that can always be over-capacity, policy blessing, financing loosening, technological innovation, and the overall environment is constantly improving. However, how to develop strengths and avoid weaknesses and turn ideals into reality? This is probably the subject of exploration and exploration.

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