Copper price trend forecast in the second half of 2012

After the first quarter's shock consolidation, Lun Copper began to gradually fall in April; almost a unilateral downtrend in May, continued to break through a few support; June was dominated by weak shocks, and June 22 copper prices hit $7,220/t New lows for the year. However, at the end of June, due to the anticipation of the EU summit and the EU summit reached the latest euro zone bailout agreement, boosted the rise of commodities and financial markets. On the last trading day of the first half of the year, investors covered the shortest period since November, and the largest one-day gain since November. Copper prices closed at US$7,685/ton. With the performance of the day, copper prices rose 1.1% from US$7,600/ton at the end of last year. , perform best in the base metal. However, throughout the second quarter, the decline was still the largest since the third quarter of last year.

At present, the macro risks in the first half of the year will continue into the metal market in the second half of the year. First, the debt crisis in Europe may deteriorate further. Second, the economic recovery in the United States is sluggish. The fiscal cliff has caused investors to worry about an increase. Third, the Chinese economy is still in the process of “landing” and the demand is unlikely to improve.

Of course, there are also good expectations that countries in the world will face more and more severe economic forms and will introduce more fiscal and monetary policies. The special topic is: The economic downturn is not afraid of the advent of global easing.

How will the copper price go in the second half? The Fubao Copper Research Group held a poll on this issue and involved 166 copper participants. The results show that the copper price is optimistic about 31.3%; the neutral accounted for 37.3%, while the remaining 31.3% of the people are very pessimistic. On the whole, the market remains confused for the second half of the year.



Fu Baohua’s research group Lei Lianhua believes that the current biggest risk for the copper market is the European debt crisis. It is expected that there will be a possibility of deterioration in the second half of the year. The copper price will be tested again at 50,000 points; but the Chinese economy gradually takes off in the second half of the year. Good will bring support to the copper market, expected the price in the fourth quarter is stronger than the third quarter, and the spot copper price in the second half is difficult to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton.