On October 18, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose for the sixth consecutive trading day, reaching a new high in the past four months. The spot exchange rate also broke through 6.25 for the first time, setting a record high. Analysts pointed out that the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has continued to rise, which means that the RMB depreciation expectation since September last year has changed recently, but the RMB will not continue to appreciate significantly. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar on the 18th was 6.3021, which is the highest since June 20 this year. Since last Thursday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has risen for six consecutive trading days. In the spot market, the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen recently, hitting a record high. On the 17th, the RMB against the US dollar broke through the 6.26 mark on the 17th, and then broke through the 6.25 mark on the 18th, hitting a record high of 6.2446. Zhang Ming (Weibo), deputy director of the International Finance Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that from the perspective of foreign countries, after the US launched the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy (QE3) in mid-September, the US dollar was against many major The downward exchange rate of the currency opens a certain space for the appreciation of the bilateral nominal exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar. From a domestic perspective, China's trade surplus has rebounded sharply in recent days, and the expectation of a stable economic recovery has also increased, which has also pushed up the RMB exchange rate. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, China’s exports in September increased by 9.9% year-on-year, and the monthly export volume reached a record high. In the first three quarters, China’s trade surplus totaled US$148.31 billion, a significant increase from the surplus of more than US$100 million in the same period last year. Zhao Qingming (microblogging), a financial expert, said that the recent trading of the RMB against the US dollar against the mid-price has reversed, from the deep decline before the end of August to the current deep rise. The main reason behind this is the recent China. The transformation of the trade situation. He analyzed that from the middle of the present to the present, China's trade surplus has been expanding. Without a surprise, China’s trade surplus this year will exceed 200 billion US dollars. The expansion of the trade surplus will undoubtedly increase the dollar supply in the foreign exchange market and push up the RMB exchange rate. In addition, the development of China's foreign exchange market lacks breadth and depth, and the volume of transactions is small, which is prone to one-sided trading based on the same market expectations. Recently, the market generally sees a high renminbi, and concentrates on selling the US dollar, pushing the RMB exchange rate in the spot market to a new high. According to economic data released on the 18th, China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate declined for the seventh consecutive quarter. However, the export growth rate rebounded sharply in September. The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rebounded for the first time in four consecutive months. The economic indicators such as investment and consumption all improved, indicating that the Chinese economy is shifting from slow to stable. Cao Honghui, deputy dean of the China Development Bank Research Institute, said that the positive factors of China's economy are gradually accumulating in the near future, and the trend of stable economic recovery and steady growth of foreign trade is expected to be realized. However, the European and American debt crisis is difficult to end in the short term. The trend of China's export growth is difficult to maintain in the medium and long term. The RMB does not have a basis for substantial appreciation or substantial depreciation. According to the latest data released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the real effective exchange rate index for the RMB in September 2012 was 107.57, which was 0.68% lower than that in August, the lowest level since November 2011. From the perspective of the forward market, the renminbi still has a depreciation expectation. Zhang Ming pointed out that QE3's impact on the trend of the renminbi will continue for some time or will be eliminated in the short term. At present, the possibility of a sharp appreciation or a sharp depreciation of the RMB is relatively small. It is expected that the volatility of the RMB exchange rate will further increase, and this year there will be a slight appreciation in the shock. Cao Honghui said that in the first half of this year, in the context of a trade deficit and an increased risk of economic downturn, the RMB exchange rate has experienced a large depreciation. Recently, as the trade situation improved, the RMB exchange rate reappeared sharply. This comparison Intense fluctuations can cause problems in business operations and investment activities, and increase the exchange rate risk of enterprises and financial institutions. The overall stability of the RMB exchange rate should be maintained to promote the steady development of the Chinese economy.
Inconel is a family of austenitic nickel-chromium-based superalloys.
Inconel
alloys are oxidation-corrosion-resistant materials well suited for
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