Nowadays, due to the increasing demand for solar photovoltaic cells in the world, more and more domestic enterprises have become OEM factories of photovoltaic cells, and take this opportunity to continue to grow and develop. The US's new energy policy has provided a good opportunity for domestic PV companies. Some domestic industry leaders have begun to set up subsidiaries in the United States to contract photovoltaic power generation projects and actively enter the local photovoltaic power generation market.
95% of China's PV industry is abroad, and domestic applications are still very limited. In the long run, China will not widely use solar photovoltaic power generation technology. The energy problems encountered in China's economic development will become more and more serious. The energy issue will definitely become a huge obstacle to China's economic development. China is one of the countries with abundant solar resources. China has a desert area of ​​1.08 million square kilometers, mainly distributed in the northwest region rich in light resources. An area of ​​1 square kilometer can be installed with a 100 megawatt photovoltaic array, which can generate 150 million kWh per year. If the development and utilization of 1% of the desert is used, it can emit the equivalent of 2003 China's electricity consumption. At present, in many areas such as the north and the coast of China, the annual sunshine is more than 2,000 hours, and Hainan has reached more than 2,400 hours. It is a veritable solar resource country. It can be seen that China has the geographical conditions for the widespread application of photovoltaic power generation technology.
The Chinese government has also introduced some policies on the development of new energy sources in recent years. Among them, the recently issued "Notice on Implementing the Golden Sun Demonstration Project" is the most eye-catching. The notice focuses on the construction of demonstration projects such as user-side grid-connected photovoltaic power generation, independent photovoltaic power generation, large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power generation, and the industrialization of key technologies for photovoltaic power generation, such as silicon material purification and grid-connected operation, and related basic capacity building. Degree, market.
The development status of the photovoltaic industry determines the unit investment subsidy ceiling for various demonstration projects. For grid-connected photovoltaic power generation projects, in principle, 50% of the total investment of photovoltaic power generation systems and their associated transmission and distribution projects will be subsidized; among them, independent photovoltaic power generation systems in remote and non-powered areas will be subsidized according to 70% of the total investment; Key technology industrialization and basic capacity building projects are mainly supported by subsidies and subsidies.
This policy has pushed China to become a solar photovoltaic power generation country from the foundry factory of photovoltaic cells. For this historical opportunity, the challenges faced by domestic PV companies in the face of their counterparts are actually more severe. Only by continuously improving the quality of photovoltaic products and opening up domestic and international sales channels can we make better use of opportunities and make enterprises bigger and stronger.
Solar energy has the characteristics of renewable and environmental protection. This advantage has made solar energy, as a key development of new energy industry, in many countries including China. China's PV products are mainly supplied to European and American markets, and the domestic market share is small. In recent years, due to the increasing market demand in Europe and the United States, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved rapid development, with an average annual growth rate of more than 40% in the past five years. Under the background of further policy support, the future growth prospects of the photovoltaic industry will be even broader.
China's photovoltaic industry photovoltaic power industry chain from upstream to downstream, mainly including industrial chains including polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells and battery components. In the industrial chain, from polysilicon to battery components, the technical threshold for production is getting lower and lower, and accordingly, the number of companies is increasing. Therefore, the profit of the entire photovoltaic industry chain is mainly concentrated in the upstream polysilicon production link, and the profitability of upstream enterprises is significantly better than the downstream.
At present, the profit obtained from polysilicon production in mainland China has the highest proportion of total profit of final battery component products, which is about 52%; the profit of battery component production accounts for about 18%; and the profit of battery chip and wafer production accounts for About 17% and 13%.
Since 2008, polysilicon prices have begun to decline significantly. Up to now, the domestic spot price of polysilicon has dropped from $500/kg last year to $100-150/kg.
Polysilicon capacity expansion is too fast, and relatively slow demand growth is the main factor leading to price declines. According to iSuppi's forecast, global polysilicon supply will double in 2009, while demand growth is only 34%. Therefore, the price of polysilicon is likely to fall further. iSuppi even said that by 2010, the spot price of polysilicon will drop to $100/kg, which will greatly reduce the profitability of polysilicon suppliers.
The decline in polysilicon prices will increase the profit of cell manufacturers, but there is also a big risk in the pure wafer business. Whether it is the upstream polysilicon supplier or the downstream cell manufacturer, there is no technical problem in manufacturing silicon wafers. When the upstream and downstream companies entered the wafer business at the same time, the profit of the silicon wafer business chain was greatly squeezed.
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