The Driving Factors and Development Direction of Structural Changes in Stock Prices

In the domestic market, the overall stock price fluctuations are relatively large, but the differentiation is not serious, and the absolute number of absolute low-priced stocks is relatively small. The high-priced stocks in the market are mainly concentrated in small-cap stocks, while the low-priced stocks in the main board are concentrated in 5-10 yuan. Although the low-priced stocks in the main board market accounted for relatively high, but at the same time relatively high valuations, small-cap stocks are driven by investor risk appetite to perform high valuations, high stock prices.

From the perspective of changes in the market low-priced stocks, the overall low-cost stocks of steel, real estate, power equipment and public utilities accounted for a relatively high proportion, and some industries experienced a passive upgrade from undervalued valuations to low-performance growth, while pharmaceuticals, food and beverages In the industry, the proportion of low-price stocks has gradually decreased relative to other industries, and the valuation has also declined steadily, which is mainly driven by the relatively stable growth of business performance.

In terms of valuation, when the Shanghai Stock Exchange was at 998 points and 1664 points, the overall proportion of PB below 2 times was as high as 69.9% and 64.1%, respectively, while at the 2000 stock index, the PB was only 39.4% below 2 times, the market valuation structure. There are still some differences, especially small-cap stocks such as small and medium-sized board, GEM and other relatively high valuations and the main body.

Compared with the developed securities market, there are two characteristics of China's A share market share price. First of all, the stock price differentiation in the A-share market is not significant, especially the lack of absolute low-priced stocks, which is obviously different from the large number of low-priced stocks in the developed stock market.

Secondly, in China's market, investors have different valuation structures for companies in different stages of growth. Some emerging industries in developed securities markets generally have the feature of lower stock prices than valuations, and have stable performance and strong profitability. The valuation of heavyweights is relatively high. In the A-share market, even if the performance of emerging industries is not stable, they still have the characteristics of high stock prices and high valuations. While large-cap blue-chip stocks such as banks, although the profitability is relatively stable, the market valuation is generally low.

With the completion of the market delisting system, investor protection, market-oriented value investment concepts and other aspects gradually formed, changes in market characteristics are mainly reflected in: First, the overall market valuation center gradually decreased; Second, stable performance, strong profitability, Financial service industry and other industries with higher shareholder returns are expected to be improved in valuation and stock prices. Third, under the pressure of delisting, real low-priced stocks and highly liquid stocks will gradually increase; Fourth, some new economic growth The industries in the related fields are promoted as performance growth continues and valuations remain relatively high, and some industries that are and will enter the recession face the dual pressures of falling valuations and falling stock prices. The short-term market is driven by factors such as market valuations and economic restructuring. The durable consumer goods industries such as banks and financial services, household appliances, and automobiles are expected to be boosted in market valuation and share prices, while some of the fine-grained industries in the growth period are worth Long-term attention.

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