The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing recently released the China Purchasing Managers' Index for December 2009. In December, the manufacturing composite index (PMI) was 56.6%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 57.5%, up 5.2 percentage points from the previous month. The data shows that China's overall economic recovery is further consolidated, and the future good development momentum will continue to be maintained.
Economic prosperity continues to rise
Looking back at the track of China's PMI index in 2009, it shows the trend of China's rapid economic recovery, reflecting the strength and potential of China's economic development.
First, after the manufacturing index fell to a low point in November 2008 (38.8%), it took only three months to get out of the critical point of the recession, showing a clear V-shaped growth, indicating that the central government was saving the rapid economic decline. Taking rescue measures is quick and powerful.
Second, since the inflection point was presented in March, the PMI index has risen step by step, indicating that the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy and the loose monetary policy are efficient and effective.
Third, since 2009, the non-manufacturing index and the manufacturing index have increased in synergy, indicating that a series of measures to stimulate domestic demand are correct and effective. Looking back at China's macroeconomic trends in 2009, it will complement the track of the PMI index.
First, gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds quarter by quarter. After the GDP in the first quarter of 2009 showed a low point, it increased quarter by quarter, and it continued to show an accelerating trend. It is a foregone conclusion that the goal of “guaranteeing eight†will be exceeded in the whole year.
Second, industrial added value rebounded rapidly. Driven by ultra-scale investment, industrial added value has increased by 3.8% from February, and has risen to 10.3% in November.
Third, the retail sales of the whole society maintained steady growth (up 15.3% in the first 11 months). In particular, it has benefited from the incentives for automobile purchase tax, car subsidies, and home appliances to the countryside to stimulate domestic demand. So far, automobile production has exceeded one million vehicles for 9 consecutive months. The steady growth of consumer demand not only plays the role of economic stabilizer, but also shows that the contribution of consumer demand in the process of stimulating economic recovery is increasing.
From this, it can be expected that the Chinese economy will gradually emerge from the crisis, and the trend of stabilization and recovery has been basically established. The prosperity continues to rise, which means that the economy will maintain a good momentum of development in the coming months. In particular, the December manufacturing index, in addition to the decline in the export index, indicates that the overall economic recovery trend will continue.
Business pressure is increasing
In the future economic development process, whether the employment situation can continue to improve, whether the benefits of enterprises can be effectively improved, and the intensity of future inflation will be the answer to this year.
From the perspective of the PMI index, it currently shows the following characteristics: the manufacturing employment index is still unstable; the non-manufacturing employment index has been declining in recent months and is at the edge of the critical point; non-manufacturing price The index growth is declining, while the input price index is rising, which means that the profit margin of enterprises will be affected; the purchase price index of the manufacturing industry has been rising continuously for nearly two months, indicating that enterprises will face increasing pressure on costs.
Protecting employment is not only the basis of people's livelihood, but also related to maintaining stability. From an economic point of view, employment growth generally lags behind economic growth, but high economic growth does not necessarily mean high employment, because it also involves other factors such as investment structure. At present, the employment situation in China has improved. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security recently announced that by the end of November 2009, 10.13 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, and more than 11 million new jobs will be realized in cities across the country by the end of the year. However, in the state of entering the peak employment period in 2010, whether the employment situation can continue to improve, it is also necessary to increase employment through multiple channels and multiple means, including vigorously developing emerging industries, developing service industries, and encouraging self-employment.
Increasing benefits is not only the root of the survival of enterprises, but also related to the expansion of domestic demand, and the growth of economic benefits is the lifeblood of the survival and development of enterprises. At present, with the economic situation constantly improving, the economic benefits of enterprises have improved. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 11 months of 2009, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2,589.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. However, it is predicted that in 2010, enterprises will bear the cost pressure including rising raw material prices, and production and operation activities will face greater challenges.
"Troika" development will be more coordinated
According to the China Logistics Information Center, investment will continue to be the main driver in the three engines that drive the economy in 2010. In the first three quarters of 2009, China's investment increased by 33.1%, contributed 7.3 percentage points to GDP (up 7.7%), and contributed 94.8%. Although there will be no such high investment growth rate in 2010, there will still be a certain high growth rate. There are two main reasons: On the one hand, many new projects started in 2009, this year, investment needs to continue to follow up; In terms of the medium and long-term credit funds of some enterprises in 2009, they have not yet entered the real economy, and this year is expected to be put into use. Therefore, investment will still maintain a certain high growth in 2010, but the growth rate will slow down.
At the same time, the export situation in 2010 will be better than in 2009, but the increase will not be too high. In November 2009, the US manufacturing new order index has risen to 60%, and the US manufacturing PMI index is expected to remain above 50% for the fifth consecutive month. But it should also be seen the hardships of the resurgence of the US economy and the complexity of the global economic situation. The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs predicts that the world economy will recover in 2010, achieving a low growth rate of 2.4%. At the same time, the after-products of the financial crisis, the intensification of international trade protection and the reshuffling of the world economic structure will bring more uncertainty to the economy in 2010. Therefore, the foreign trade export situation in 2010 will still have a severe side, but the overall trend is getting better.
In addition, consumer demand will grow steadily. The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed in the deployment of the 2010 economic work task that it should "sincerely and more actively adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand", and "increasing household consumption as the focus of expanding domestic demand, through safeguards and improvement." People's livelihood promotes economic structure optimization and enhances economic development. According to the consumption market situation in 2009, in 2010, in order to increase consumer demand, new measures need to be introduced, coupled with more policies to benefit the people, in order to enhance the driving force of consumption to the economy.
The industry believes that investment, exports and consumption will be more coordinated in 2010, but the stability and sustainability of the policy is the foundation, and the pertinence and flexibility of the policy is the key.
Although the intensification of international trade protection and the reshuffling of the world economic structure will bring more uncertainty to the economy in 2010, the country’s foreign trade export situation will face severe challenges in the new year, but the overall good trend has been established. . The picture shows the corner of Fuzhou Qingzhou Container Terminal.
2010 industrial economy will usher in a good start
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that since March 2009, the PMI index has been above 50 for nine consecutive months and continues to maintain its highest level since April 2008. This shows that the national manufacturing industry is generally in a good position to continue to improve, and mutual verification of industrial production and investment indicators.
From January to February 2009, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was only 3.8%, but the industrial growth rate began to accelerate from March, reaching 16.1% in October and reaching a high peak of 19.2% in November. It has maintained an accelerated growth trend for the month. Therefore, the December PMI index also indicates that the growth rate of China's industrial production will remain at a high level in the short term. It is expected that the industrial added value growth rate in December 2009 and January 2010 will remain at a historically high level.
Compared with historical data, PMI has basically remained stable in November and December of the beginning of statistics, and there will be no record high. In 2009, the data hit a new high in the year, indicating that the economic system is further improving. From the relationship between PMI and industrial production, PMI data has a lead indication of 2 to 3 months. Therefore, the high PMI data in December means that the growth rate of industrial added value in early 2010 is expected to continue to maintain a high level. Coupled with the low base of 6 to 7 percentage points year-on-year growth in early 2009, the growth rate of industrial added value in 2010 is very high in the previous year, and the probability of maintaining a relatively high growth rate is very high.
From the perspective of the industry, in all 20 manufacturing industries, 10 PMIs in the metal products industry, transportation equipment manufacturing industry and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry are above 60%, which means that these industries will be in the near future. A substantial recovery. In addition, there are 8 industries that are maintained at 50% to 60%. Only two industries of chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic products and tobacco products are still below 50%, while the new orders index of consumer goods companies is the fastest. It shows that the manufacturing industry has entered a stage of full recovery.
In addition to a slight decline in June and July, the 2009 new order index is basically in line with the PMI trend. The new order index rebounded to more than 50% in February, and reached 61% in December. Insiders pointed out that the continuous rise of the new order index and the strong growth of fixed asset investment are inseparable, indicating that the social demand is further warming, which also indicates that the economic growth trend will continue to be consolidated.
In December, the new export orders index fell by 1 percentage point from 53.6% to 52.6%, which was the second consecutive month of decline in the index. This fall is more of a seasonal adjustment. The new export order index in China's historical years is difficult to show a high level in November and December of the end of the year, and it tends to be stable or fall back. Taking into account the role of the new export order index on the export volume, the export volume of China in early 2010 will not increase significantly, and there is a greater possibility of a slight decline. The export volume has been characterized by the fall in January and February of the beginning of the year. It is normal for the PMI data to continue to fall in December 2009, and it does not indicate the deterioration of foreign trade exports. The industry believes that the overall situation of exports is unquestionable, but we must beware of the monthly fluctuations in exports that may be caused by various reasons.
In addition, the purchase price index rose sharply in December, from 63.4% in November to 66.7%, and continued to rise by 3.3 percentage points after a sharp increase of 6.5 percentage points in November. The purchase price index rose significantly in the two months of the year. . Obviously, the continued rise in the price of the most upstream oil and commodities has affected the psychological evaluation of purchasing managers, and the raw material, fuel, and power purchase price indices in November have clearly rebounded. Based on the trend of several types of data, the upward pressure on China's PPI will further increase.
Economic prosperity continues to rise
Looking back at the track of China's PMI index in 2009, it shows the trend of China's rapid economic recovery, reflecting the strength and potential of China's economic development.
First, after the manufacturing index fell to a low point in November 2008 (38.8%), it took only three months to get out of the critical point of the recession, showing a clear V-shaped growth, indicating that the central government was saving the rapid economic decline. Taking rescue measures is quick and powerful.
Second, since the inflection point was presented in March, the PMI index has risen step by step, indicating that the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy and the loose monetary policy are efficient and effective.
Third, since 2009, the non-manufacturing index and the manufacturing index have increased in synergy, indicating that a series of measures to stimulate domestic demand are correct and effective. Looking back at China's macroeconomic trends in 2009, it will complement the track of the PMI index.
First, gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds quarter by quarter. After the GDP in the first quarter of 2009 showed a low point, it increased quarter by quarter, and it continued to show an accelerating trend. It is a foregone conclusion that the goal of “guaranteeing eight†will be exceeded in the whole year.
Second, industrial added value rebounded rapidly. Driven by ultra-scale investment, industrial added value has increased by 3.8% from February, and has risen to 10.3% in November.
Third, the retail sales of the whole society maintained steady growth (up 15.3% in the first 11 months). In particular, it has benefited from the incentives for automobile purchase tax, car subsidies, and home appliances to the countryside to stimulate domestic demand. So far, automobile production has exceeded one million vehicles for 9 consecutive months. The steady growth of consumer demand not only plays the role of economic stabilizer, but also shows that the contribution of consumer demand in the process of stimulating economic recovery is increasing.
From this, it can be expected that the Chinese economy will gradually emerge from the crisis, and the trend of stabilization and recovery has been basically established. The prosperity continues to rise, which means that the economy will maintain a good momentum of development in the coming months. In particular, the December manufacturing index, in addition to the decline in the export index, indicates that the overall economic recovery trend will continue.
Business pressure is increasing
In the future economic development process, whether the employment situation can continue to improve, whether the benefits of enterprises can be effectively improved, and the intensity of future inflation will be the answer to this year.
From the perspective of the PMI index, it currently shows the following characteristics: the manufacturing employment index is still unstable; the non-manufacturing employment index has been declining in recent months and is at the edge of the critical point; non-manufacturing price The index growth is declining, while the input price index is rising, which means that the profit margin of enterprises will be affected; the purchase price index of the manufacturing industry has been rising continuously for nearly two months, indicating that enterprises will face increasing pressure on costs.
Protecting employment is not only the basis of people's livelihood, but also related to maintaining stability. From an economic point of view, employment growth generally lags behind economic growth, but high economic growth does not necessarily mean high employment, because it also involves other factors such as investment structure. At present, the employment situation in China has improved. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security recently announced that by the end of November 2009, 10.13 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, and more than 11 million new jobs will be realized in cities across the country by the end of the year. However, in the state of entering the peak employment period in 2010, whether the employment situation can continue to improve, it is also necessary to increase employment through multiple channels and multiple means, including vigorously developing emerging industries, developing service industries, and encouraging self-employment.
Increasing benefits is not only the root of the survival of enterprises, but also related to the expansion of domestic demand, and the growth of economic benefits is the lifeblood of the survival and development of enterprises. At present, with the economic situation constantly improving, the economic benefits of enterprises have improved. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 11 months of 2009, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2,589.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. However, it is predicted that in 2010, enterprises will bear the cost pressure including rising raw material prices, and production and operation activities will face greater challenges.
"Troika" development will be more coordinated
According to the China Logistics Information Center, investment will continue to be the main driver in the three engines that drive the economy in 2010. In the first three quarters of 2009, China's investment increased by 33.1%, contributed 7.3 percentage points to GDP (up 7.7%), and contributed 94.8%. Although there will be no such high investment growth rate in 2010, there will still be a certain high growth rate. There are two main reasons: On the one hand, many new projects started in 2009, this year, investment needs to continue to follow up; In terms of the medium and long-term credit funds of some enterprises in 2009, they have not yet entered the real economy, and this year is expected to be put into use. Therefore, investment will still maintain a certain high growth in 2010, but the growth rate will slow down.
At the same time, the export situation in 2010 will be better than in 2009, but the increase will not be too high. In November 2009, the US manufacturing new order index has risen to 60%, and the US manufacturing PMI index is expected to remain above 50% for the fifth consecutive month. But it should also be seen the hardships of the resurgence of the US economy and the complexity of the global economic situation. The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs predicts that the world economy will recover in 2010, achieving a low growth rate of 2.4%. At the same time, the after-products of the financial crisis, the intensification of international trade protection and the reshuffling of the world economic structure will bring more uncertainty to the economy in 2010. Therefore, the foreign trade export situation in 2010 will still have a severe side, but the overall trend is getting better.
In addition, consumer demand will grow steadily. The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed in the deployment of the 2010 economic work task that it should "sincerely and more actively adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand", and "increasing household consumption as the focus of expanding domestic demand, through safeguards and improvement." People's livelihood promotes economic structure optimization and enhances economic development. According to the consumption market situation in 2009, in 2010, in order to increase consumer demand, new measures need to be introduced, coupled with more policies to benefit the people, in order to enhance the driving force of consumption to the economy.
The industry believes that investment, exports and consumption will be more coordinated in 2010, but the stability and sustainability of the policy is the foundation, and the pertinence and flexibility of the policy is the key.
Although the intensification of international trade protection and the reshuffling of the world economic structure will bring more uncertainty to the economy in 2010, the country’s foreign trade export situation will face severe challenges in the new year, but the overall good trend has been established. . The picture shows the corner of Fuzhou Qingzhou Container Terminal.
2010 industrial economy will usher in a good start
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that since March 2009, the PMI index has been above 50 for nine consecutive months and continues to maintain its highest level since April 2008. This shows that the national manufacturing industry is generally in a good position to continue to improve, and mutual verification of industrial production and investment indicators.
From January to February 2009, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was only 3.8%, but the industrial growth rate began to accelerate from March, reaching 16.1% in October and reaching a high peak of 19.2% in November. It has maintained an accelerated growth trend for the month. Therefore, the December PMI index also indicates that the growth rate of China's industrial production will remain at a high level in the short term. It is expected that the industrial added value growth rate in December 2009 and January 2010 will remain at a historically high level.
Compared with historical data, PMI has basically remained stable in November and December of the beginning of statistics, and there will be no record high. In 2009, the data hit a new high in the year, indicating that the economic system is further improving. From the relationship between PMI and industrial production, PMI data has a lead indication of 2 to 3 months. Therefore, the high PMI data in December means that the growth rate of industrial added value in early 2010 is expected to continue to maintain a high level. Coupled with the low base of 6 to 7 percentage points year-on-year growth in early 2009, the growth rate of industrial added value in 2010 is very high in the previous year, and the probability of maintaining a relatively high growth rate is very high.
From the perspective of the industry, in all 20 manufacturing industries, 10 PMIs in the metal products industry, transportation equipment manufacturing industry and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry are above 60%, which means that these industries will be in the near future. A substantial recovery. In addition, there are 8 industries that are maintained at 50% to 60%. Only two industries of chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic products and tobacco products are still below 50%, while the new orders index of consumer goods companies is the fastest. It shows that the manufacturing industry has entered a stage of full recovery.
In addition to a slight decline in June and July, the 2009 new order index is basically in line with the PMI trend. The new order index rebounded to more than 50% in February, and reached 61% in December. Insiders pointed out that the continuous rise of the new order index and the strong growth of fixed asset investment are inseparable, indicating that the social demand is further warming, which also indicates that the economic growth trend will continue to be consolidated.
In December, the new export orders index fell by 1 percentage point from 53.6% to 52.6%, which was the second consecutive month of decline in the index. This fall is more of a seasonal adjustment. The new export order index in China's historical years is difficult to show a high level in November and December of the end of the year, and it tends to be stable or fall back. Taking into account the role of the new export order index on the export volume, the export volume of China in early 2010 will not increase significantly, and there is a greater possibility of a slight decline. The export volume has been characterized by the fall in January and February of the beginning of the year. It is normal for the PMI data to continue to fall in December 2009, and it does not indicate the deterioration of foreign trade exports. The industry believes that the overall situation of exports is unquestionable, but we must beware of the monthly fluctuations in exports that may be caused by various reasons.
In addition, the purchase price index rose sharply in December, from 63.4% in November to 66.7%, and continued to rise by 3.3 percentage points after a sharp increase of 6.5 percentage points in November. The purchase price index rose significantly in the two months of the year. . Obviously, the continued rise in the price of the most upstream oil and commodities has affected the psychological evaluation of purchasing managers, and the raw material, fuel, and power purchase price indices in November have clearly rebounded. Based on the trend of several types of data, the upward pressure on China's PPI will further increase.
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