According to the latest NPD Solarbuzz solar equipment quarterly report, the effective capacity of first-line solar cell manufacturers is in line with the global solar demand forecast in 2012, and Taiwan battery manufacturers have become a barometer of demand in the solar terminal market. “How much is the real capacity of the solar industry today?†This may be the most frequently asked question in the past six months. The origin of the problem is not simply curiosity, the level of production is related to supply levels and inventory levels, the spot price of the module, the planned utilization rate, and long-term capacity expansion and capital expenditure plans. Understanding the level of capacity does not directly add to the capacity of the equipment that has arrived, and this statistical approach tends to mislead the public. Take a look at the numbers obtained with this academic method: 50GW, 60GW or even 70GW? Now compare the numbers of these headlines with the demand of about 30GW of solar market in 2012. It is easy to understand why the capacity problem is cited. People are hot, in fact, why it is confusing. Market demand affects production capacity The definition of capacity in the solar industry has been somewhat “loose†in the past. Normally, all capacity is counted, regardless of whether the capacity will be accepted by the market, or whether there is actually a downstream business worth maintaining the equipment after the manufacturer announces capacity. Emphasizing “effective†capacity provides a welcome solution that can help solve these problems. Effective capacity is defined as the ability to produce the capacity of a battery/module that meets market demand at a time. Other capacity, not defined, is “invalid†capacity and can be removed when considering capacity/utilization and supply-demand analysis. Although many manufacturers are still looking to re-enable production capacity in dormancy, it is hopeful that the uncompetitive capacity in 2011 will be able to restart and be competitive in 2013. Any increase in market demand will drive the growth of effective capacity utilization and the accompanying market leader's capacity expansion, while uncompetitive capacity will not be reused. Exclusion of non-competitive capacity There are several ways to exclude invalid capacity. The easiest is the exit of capacity when the company chooses to withdraw from the industry or fails to operate (such as bankruptcy, etc.), and secondly, it excludes idle idle capacity (actually repaired and sealed); finally, mass production capacity The level needs to be thoroughly reviewed every quarter. The production capacity of the production is different from the capacity of the nameplate or the production capacity of the equipment. The production capacity of production has fluctuations and limits. In today's solar industry, the “lower limit†is far more valuable than the “upper limitâ€. For example, some of the production lines in the past phase of crystal silicon capacity expansion could operate at a utilization rate exceeding 100% of the nameplate capacity. Conversely, some film manufacturers operate at 24 hours a day, 24 hours a day, with a capacity utilization rate of only 50-60%.
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