Hardware exports look beautiful before returning to the financial crisis

Abstract The 107th Canton Fair has closed in Guangzhou. According to the official statistics of the Canton Fair, the total turnover of the conference was 34.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.6% over the autumn of 2009, but considering that 2009 is in the most serious financial crisis, the relevant turnover data is...

The 107th Canton Fair has closed in Guangzhou. According to the official statistics of the Canton Fair, the total turnover of the conference was 34.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.6% over the autumn of 2009. However, considering that 2009 is at the worst of the financial crisis, the relevant turnover data is relatively low, so according to the growth rate this year. The export volume of various industries has not recovered to the level before the financial crisis, and it can only be regarded as "restorative growth."
Experts in the foreign trade industry believe that although the volume of the Canton Fair has maintained a recovery growth momentum, it has not returned to the level before the financial crisis. At present, there are still many unclear factors in the international market, and the recovery of foreign trade is still not optimistic. Exhibitors also said that exhibitors generally reflected that buyers in emerging markets have significantly increased their desire to purchase and are optimistic about the prospects for recovery in the international market. However, they are also worried about the RMB exchange rate, the sustainability of relevant national policies and rising costs. The phenomenon of short and long, long and short is still outstanding.
“Not only the data of the Canton Fair, but also the connection and exchange of the China International Hardware Exhibition (CIHS'10) with related hardware companies this year. It also confirms that the export form of the hardware industry is indeed recovering, but the extent of recovery is very limited. From the current situation, the previous estimates of the export situation of the “post-crisis era” may be too optimistic.” Experts from the Organizing Committee of the China International Hardware Show (CIHS'10) said.
China International Hardware Show (CIHS) is the second largest hardware exhibition in the world and has been held for 10 sessions so far. As one of the organizers of CIHS, China Hardware Products Association has long been committed to implementing the national industrial policy, actively promoting industry innovation, technological advancement, industrial upgrading and product upgrading, and promoting the healthy, sustained and rapid development of the industry. It is the professional trade platform of China's hardware. Design and creator, it is also an authoritative organization for the development of hardware industry and various standards organizations. It has more than 4,000 large and medium-sized member manufacturing enterprises and more than 50,000 domestic and foreign member purchasers. The expert team of the CIHS Organizing Committee shoulders the promotion and organization of the exhibition, and also pays close attention to the problems and opportunities arising in the development of the hardware industry, and promptly contributes to the rapid and healthy development of China's hardware industry. Hardware exports "recovery growth"
Before the financial crisis, the total output value of the hardware industry reached 800 billion yuan, and has maintained a growth rate of more than 15%, of which exports reached 50.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 40-50% of the total output value of the industry, except until 2007. 20-30% high growth.
Since the second half of 2008, the financial crisis has swept the world. The economies of Europe and the United States have suffered setbacks, and the external demand market has shrunk severely, which has had a major impact on the export-oriented Chinese hardware industry. For a time, the export data of the hardware industry fell to the bottom. In the first half of 2009, exports have dropped by 22% compared with the same period of last year. This is a situation that has never been seen in history.
According to customs statistics, in the whole year of 2009, among the top ten categories of hardware products, construction hardware products saw the largest decline year-on-year, reaching 31.2%. Tool products also fell by more than 7%.
Time to enter 2010, the hardware industry has seen the international market demand began to slowly pick up, orders gradually increased the "recovery" signs. Many people have begun to suggest that the hardware industry has also entered the so-called "post-crisis era", saying that China's hardware industry has begun to emerge from the shadow of the financial crisis, the form is very optimistic, and the prospects are very bright.
"Now, I am afraid we are a little too happy." Experts from the organizing committee of the 10 China International Hardware Exhibition (CIHS'10) said, "The current export of the hardware industry is indeed growing, but more is a kind of recovery. Sexual growth, or 'retaliation' growth."
The expert analyzed that the reason is because in the first half of last year, due to the impact of the financial crisis, foreign sellers were very careful when purchasing, mainly to clean up inventory. Until now, their inventory has been insufficient and there has been some demand for additional stocks. In addition, the situation in different markets around the world is different. At present, the demand in emerging markets such as South Asia, Eastern Europe, Russia and the Middle East is growing rapidly, but the recovery of EU and US market demand as a traditional hardware export destination is still relatively slow.
"China International Hardware Show (CIHS) is the world's second largest hardware exhibition, has been held for 10 times so far. The exhibition is strongly supported by the Cologne Hardware Show, and has been committed to developing stable export channels for China's hardware companies, helping China's hardware industry The development of the '10 China International Hardware Exhibition (CIHS'10) Organizing Committee said, "According to the current situation, this year's '10 China International Hardware Exhibition (CIHS'10) will continue to maintain the number of European and American buyers. At the same time, we will invite professional buyers from emerging markets such as Central and South America, South Asia, Eastern Europe, Russia, the Middle East and Africa to purchase. It is expected that the number of overseas buyers of China International Hardware Exhibition (CIHS) will exceed 3,000, helping China's hardware exports. Enterprises will expand their export channels and get out of the shadow of the financial crisis as soon as possible. In addition, the organizers will also invite large financial institutions to participate in the exhibition to provide export-related services such as international settlement."
The hardware export situation is still complicated in the short term. Premier Wen Jiabao mentioned in the government work report of the "two sessions" at the beginning of this year that this year is the most complicated year for the economic situation. This sentence also applies to the hardware export situation.
The financial crisis is still slowly recovering, and the export volume of the hardware industry is slowly picking up. However, due to the fact that the demand of important markets such as Europe and the United States has not fully recovered to the pre-crisis level, the current export volume of hardware products and before the crisis There is still a big gap compared to this.
However, in this difficult recovery, there are many uncertain factors, which may cause a major blow to the export situation of good hardware products.
First of all, there has been a marked rise in raw materials or rising expectations in the hardware industry in the near future: copper prices have soared since last year; long-lasting iron ore negotiations are likely to lead to “crazy stones”, which in turn lead to skyrocketing steel prices; Zinc and various non-ferrous metals also have strong price hike expectations; oil prices such as oil are also rising. It can be said that the overall increase in raw materials will greatly increase the cost pressure of hardware companies, resulting in a marginal profit margin. Further compression, and once the hardware products are forced to increase prices, it will be a fatal blow to the export of Chinese hardware products with low price as the traditional competitive advantage.
Second, the financial market is not stable. Recently, the renminbi has suffered tremendous pressure to appreciate. Once the renminbi is forced to appreciate, it will directly lead to the price increase of export hardware products in the international market, lose the price advantage of China's export hardware products, and seriously crack down on the export situation of the hardware industry. In addition, due to the overheated development of domestic real estate and other industries, there has been a serious economic bubble, and consumer prices have soared, CPI has hit new highs, inflation expectations have increased, and interest rate hikes may be imminent, and once interest rates are raised, The main hardware industry is another blow.
"China International Hardware Exhibition (CIHS) Organizing Committee has been paying continuous attention to the export situation of the hardware industry, as well as various issues such as raw materials, RMB appreciation, exchange rate, etc., and analyzing economic policies and exports for China's hardware enterprises through various channels. And many other issues, and strive to find a reasonable solution to these problems through the CIHS platform." "10 China International Hardware Exhibition (CIHS'10) Organizing Committee experts said, "for these issues, we are in this year' 10 China International Hardware Show (CIHS'10) provides a variety of activities for exhibitors, such as the 'European and American Market Hardware Products Purchasing Fair' which specializes in expanding the sales channels in Europe and the United States; participation by the steel and non-ferrous industry experts and media, to the hardware industry The forum on the theme of the raw materials market; and the 'financial service area' consisting of financial institutions such as banks, the financial experts at the exhibition site will answer questions about the appreciation of the RMB and the exchange rate.
About CIHS
China International Hardware Exhibition is jointly sponsored by China Hardware Products Association, Cologne International Exhibition Co., Ltd., National Federation of Industry and Commerce Hardware and Electrical Chamber of Commerce, and China International Trade Promotion Council Light Industry Branch. The exhibition scale is the world's second largest, Asia's first, with 10 years of history, 2000 exhibitors, 5000 booths, 110,000 square meters of exhibition area, 4,000 stable top international buyers and hundreds of thousands of member buyers resources. The exhibition has become the preferred professional procurement platform for international hardware buyers, the “main channel” for domestic hardware products and foreign trade, and the authoritative platform for the release and promotion of new hardware products in China. '10 China International Hardware Exhibition will be held at Shanghai New International Expo Center from September 28th to 30th, 2010, and will host the '10 China International Cabinet, Kitchen and Bathroom Products and Technology Expo, 2010 China International Building Hardware Exhibition and 2010 China International Locks and Security Products Exhibition.

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