Li Keqiang first talks about the "upper limit" and "lower limit" of China's economy

On the occasion of China’s core economic indicators announced in the first half of the year, Premier Li Keqiang first clarified the specific connotation of “a reasonable range of economic operations”: macroeconomic regulation and control should let economic growth rate, employment level, etc. not slip out of the “lower limit”, price increase, etc. Exceeded the "upper limit".

Although Li Keqiang did not show specific figures in his speech, the market speculated that the "upper limit" and "lower limit" in his heart should be about 7.5% of the economic growth set by the government work report this year, and the increase in consumer price is about 3.5%. Expected targets are closer. These words also answer a question that has been debated over the past few months: Where is the "limit" of the new Chinese government's "release" and "forbearance"?

From the first time I met with the reporter, I promised to "put the wrong hand on the government into a market hand", and to promote the cancellation and decentralization of more than 100 approvals, Li Keqiang has been working hard in the first few months of his new job. Go with the government and the market.

Wang Yiming, executive vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, told the China News Service that the new strategic framework for the new era of the government is to promote the transformation of the government, that is, the subtraction of government power in exchange for the addition of market vitality.

In the process of official macro-control, there is also the shadow of “letting hands” everywhere. As far as development is concerned, relying on government-led large-scale investment to drive the economy has become a thing of the past, and short-term stimulus with a loose currency does not seem to be considered by policy makers.

From the perspective of reform, the current government has clearly defined the rationalization of resources and energy prices as a breakthrough in reform, and has frequent actions. The rationale for rationalizing prices is also to relax administrative interventions so that prices reflect market supply and demand and resource scarcity as much as possible.

The “putting” strategy has brought about the need for “bearing”. In the face of persistent weak economic data, abandoning short-term stimulus means to tolerate the downward trend of economic growth to a certain extent; in the face of the “compensation” of resource and energy prices, desalination of government intervention means accepting the inflationary pressure brought by price reform. .

Judging from the current situation, the "cap" of the Chinese economy is temporarily worry-free. In the first half of the year, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year. Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JPMorgan China, said that inflation will be under good control in the future.

In comparison, whether the Chinese economy can hold the "lower limit" is a common concern in the market. As one of the three troikas that drive the economy, foreign trade has already sounded an alarm on the 10th. According to customs statistics, after a lapse of 17 months, China’s “double down” pattern of import and export data fell back in June.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, said that both imports and exports were worse than expected, indicating that external demand is still weak. Considering that HSBC's manufacturing PMI is also continuing to fall, China's second-quarter GDP growth, which will be announced next Monday, may continue to be released from the first quarter. slow. Under such expectations, some of the voices of singing China have come again.

In this regard, Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that from the perspective of short-term fluctuations, the Chinese economy has generally stabilized. Especially in terms of employment, the unemployment rate in China does not exceed 5%. This is a remarkable achievement.

Zhang Yongjun, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the International Economic Exchange Center, stressed that the government will not let the economic breakthrough "lower limit". "If the economic growth rate continues to decline in the future, the decision-making level will definitely take corresponding measures."

In other words, as long as the economic growth rate does not show a trend of slipping out of the “lower limit”, Chinese officials are still more inclined to gain momentum for economic growth through reform rather than short-term stimulus.

In his speech on the 9th, Li Keqiang once again stressed the need to rely on reform and opening up to solve the problems in development and promote transformation and upgrading through structural adjustment. He demanded that the market players should have stable expectations in the future. At the same time, it is necessary to enhance the pertinence and anticipation of regulation and control, to achieve stability and do what is necessary, and to complete the main tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.

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