Coking coal showed a downward trend

Since the beginning of the year, coking coal has shown a downward trend in the overall oscillation. Although the international crude oil rebounded from the late March to the middle of April, it rebounded temporarily. However, due to the continuous deterioration of the fundamentals, the coking coal continued the downward path, and in July it hit 750 yuan. New lows in tons during the year.

The domestic economy is still facing downward pressure. In September, the PPI continued to show negative growth, and was lower than the same period of last year, indicating that the prices of domestic raw material markets remained sluggish. Although September's CPI remained moderate, it was lower than market expectations and it has clearly declined from August. In addition, the growth rate of fixed asset investment, the growth rate of consumer goods, and the growth rate of GDP all fell, indicating that the current economic growth slowed down.

Affected by the downturn in the real estate industry, overcapacity and weak export demand, the domestic economic growth rate in the third quarter was 7.3%, which was lower than the 7.5% in the second quarter, setting the lowest growth rate since 2009. As of September 30, China's official PMI was unchanged from the previous period, but the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 54 and was lower than the previous period of 54.4. The domestic economy is still facing greater downward pressure. The continued sluggish domestic economy will surely suppress the formation of commodity prices.

International crude oil prices continued to increase output weaker, demand is relatively weak, since July, crude oil prices continued to fall, the United States crude oil spot price fell from 104 US dollars / barrel to 90 US dollars / barrel, relatively low during the year. According to the latest report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in September, US crude oil and condensate production will reach the peak level of 9.9 million barrels/day in 2018, which is 25% higher than the output level of 7.9 million barrels/day in 2013. The IEA predicts that this year's US oil production will reach 8.7 million barrels per day, an increase of 10% from 2013, and will not fall back to 8 million barrels per day in 2013 before 2038.

Under the premise that the growth rate of crude oil consumption is low, the continuous increase in US oil production will make crude oil supply more abundant, which also inhibits the rise in crude oil prices. The weaker crude oil prices will further drag down coking coal prices.

Restrictions on purchases did not increase purchasing enthusiasm. In the month of September, restrictions on purchases were gradually released. However, sales of commercial housing were not boosted, and supply and demand in the land market continued to fall in the month. In September, all statistical cities launched 169 million square meters of land, a declining 11.87% month-on-month; from January to September, a total of 1,802 million square meters of land were launched in all statistical cities, a year-on-year decrease of 16.04% and a decrease of 4.09 percentage points from the previous month. In addition, all the statistical city land listing prices in September fell back to 1038.11 yuan / square meter, a slight decrease of 1.19%, a year-on-year decline of 7.87%.

The sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities showed that sales were sluggish in early August and the year-on-year growth rate in early September even worsened. From the perspective of sales area and purchase price, the downward trend of investment in real estate development will continue into next year.

Overall increase in coking coal inventory According to a survey of coking coal inventories of 50 sample steel mills and 53 independent coking companies, as of October 24, total inventory was 110.853 million tons, an increase of 171,900 tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.58 from the previous quarter. %, continued to rise since September. Among them, the total inventory of the sample steel mills was 7.108 million tons, an increase of 177,000 tons compared with the previous week, an increase of 2.55% from the previous month; the total inventory of the sample coking plant was 3,977,300 tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons compared with the previous week. The decline was 0.13% compared to the previous quarter.

Operational strategy Coking coal is expected to continue the decline in the latter part of the period, and it can maintain the idea of ​​overhang on operations. It adopts the principle of rolling operation, establishes positions in batches, and separates profits from the market. Specifically, choose an open position between 760-780 yuan / ton, the average construction cost is 770 yuan / ton, the position is controlled below 30% (maximum open 600 hands), the lower target position is set at 700-720 yuan / Ton, the upper stop loss is located at 800-810 yuan / ton. In this way, the theoretical minimum profit calculated according to the 30% position can reach 1.8 million yuan, and the maximum loss is 1.44 million yuan.