Abstract On June 13 this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the Central Financial and Economic Leadership Group meeting to study energy security strategy issues and made overall arrangements for promoting the energy production revolution, the consumer revolution, the technological revolution, the institutional revolution and strengthening international cooperation. Not long ago, the State Council released...
On June 13 this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the Central Financial and Economic Leadership Group meeting to study energy security strategy issues and made overall arrangements for promoting the energy production revolution, the consumer revolution, the technological revolution, the institutional revolution and strengthening international cooperation. Not long ago, the State Council issued the "Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)", which proposed the quantitative goals and implementation strategies of the energy revolution road map. The next six years: how to take the road to the energy revolution
On November 29th, Beijing fell into a "crack", PM2.5 burst table, heavy air pollution; on the same day, at the "2014 Sohu Finance Reform Summit", the famous economist Li Yining pointed to the economic super-fast growth zone Disadvantages: excessive resource consumption, ecological damage, overcapacity, and inefficiency.
The energy production and consumption revolution is imminent. How will the road to the energy revolution go in the next six years?
The next six years: how to take the road to the energy revolution
1. How to control the total amount?
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By 2020, the total primary energy consumption will be controlled at around 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, and the total coal consumption will be controlled at around 4.2 billion tons. By 2020, coal consumption in the four provinces of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will be 100 million tons less than in 2012, and the total coal consumption in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region will achieve negative growth.
"We must support economic and social development with less energy consumption." The Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020), which was released recently, defines the specific path and objectives of China's energy revolution in the next six years. According to the action plan, China will implement four strategies of saving priority, based on domestic, green and low-carbon, and innovation-driven.
Han Wenke, director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, stressed that China’s economic development has been accompanied by rapid energy growth. Now we must use the medium and low-speed growth of energy to support economic transformation. No matter which path, it is destined to be a painful Transformation."
"From the external conditions of energy development, the constraints of resources and environment are more urgent." Li Wei, director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that since the fourth quarter of 2013, China has become the world's largest oil importer and has been dependent on it in 2013. The degree is 58%. If uncontrolled, the dependence on oil imports in 2030 will exceed 70%. Such high dependence is rare in large countries. The US's dependence on foreign oil is up to 66%, and has dropped below 50%. In addition, the public capacity of air pollution has reached a critical point.
Liu Yijun, deputy director of China Petroleum Industry Development Research Center of China University of Petroleum, believes that to build an upgraded version of China's energy, we must first implement energy total control and promote the energy consumption revolution. Change the idea of ​​supplying energy to open openings in the past, and form a conservation-oriented production mode and a sustainable consumption pattern through the constraint of total energy.
"Since November 29, the state has increased the consumption tax on gasoline and diesel. This is a clear signal, which means that China will gradually form a green taxation system with environmental tax and consumption tax as the main body, and establish market-adjusted means such as price. Long-term mechanism for energy conservation and emission reduction." Liu Yijun told reporters.
2. How to adjust the structure?
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By 2020, the proportion of coal consumption will be controlled within 62%. Non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, conventional hydropower installed capacity will reach 350 million kilowatts, wind power installed capacity will reach 200 million kilowatts, and photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 100 million kilowatts.
“The frequent smog in China has brought great anxiety to everyone. How did the smog come about? It is largely caused by the burning of coal. We have taken many measures to control the coal and use it centrally. But the most fundamental The solution is to reduce the use of coal.†Fan Bi, deputy director of the Comprehensive Research Department of the State Council Research Office, pointed out.
The first item of the Energy Development Strategic Action Plan on optimizing the energy structure is to reduce the proportion of coal consumption. The action plan cuts the total coal consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. At the same time, it will control the coal consumption in the key coal field, and by 2017, it will basically complete the natural gas replacement and transformation tasks of coal-fired boilers and industrial furnaces in key areas. The total coal consumption is controlled at around 4.2 billion tons.
Developing clean low-carbon energy is the main direction of adjusting the energy structure. The path to optimize the energy structure is: reduce the proportion of coal consumption, increase the proportion of natural gas consumption, vigorously develop renewable energy such as wind power, solar energy, geothermal energy, and safely develop nuclear power. The action plan proposes to accelerate the development of renewable energy and effectively solve the problem of abandoning wind, abandoning water and abandoning light in accordance with the principle of equal emphasis on output and on-site consumption, centralized and distributed development. By 2020, non-fossil energy accounts for 15% of primary energy consumption.
"Our determination is very big, but at present China's industrialization has not yet been completed, the industrial structure is still undergoing difficult adjustments, and urbanization has just started on a large scale. The proportion of traditional energy is reduced, for economic development, employment, and local government. Brought a lot of challenges.†Zhao Gang, deputy director of the New Energy International Cooperation Office of the Ministry of Science and Technology pointed out.
The development of renewable energy technologies requires policy support. At present, the National Energy Administration has issued a document supporting distributed energy, building demonstration projects, giving tax and policy support, and central and local governments have clear new energy subsidies.
3. What should I do with the reform?
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China will deepen the reform of the energy system and by 2020 will basically form a modern energy market system that is unified, open, competitive and orderly. The key tasks included in the reform are: energy price reform, grid and oil and gas pipeline network system reform, energy investment access reform, power market reform, and state-owned energy enterprise reform.
Liu Yijun believes that the institutional revolution is the fundamental guarantee for the advancement and realization of the energy production revolution, the consumer revolution, and the technological revolution. "The sign of the success of the reform is that the energy system can undergo major changes, the market can play a decisive role and better play the role of the government. Through the institutional revolution to mobilize all aspects of enthusiasm, promote the realization of the energy revolution." Liu Yijun pointed out.
The goal of deepening the reform of the energy system is to promote the separation of government and enterprises, separate natural monopoly business and competitive business, and liberalize competitive areas and links. Implement a unified market access system, encourage and guide all types of market entities to enter the fields outside the negative list in accordance with the law, and promote the diversification of energy investment entities.
Energy prices are the most pressing test for marketization.
In the reform of energy prices, we will focus on price reforms in the fields of oil, natural gas, and electricity, and orderly release competitive price, natural gas wellhead prices and sales prices, on-grid electricity prices, and sales electricity prices formed by the market, transmission and distribution prices, and oil and gas pipelines. The price of the sale is priced by the government.
Fan Bi believes that energy prices are the most stringent part of government regulation in all prices, including gas prices, electricity prices, and hot prices. “The most important issue now is to adjust government regulations to allow more and relative Independent market entity."
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