People's Daily published an article encouraging farmers to consume real estate stocks. Ren Zhiqiang shelled

Since February 22, in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other first-tier cities, the proportion of deed tax and business tax collection in real estate transactions in many cities will generally decrease. In addition, the previous policy of reducing the down payment ratio of housing purchases and raising the interest rate of housing provident fund deposits conveyed a strong signal that local governments took the initiative to promote real estate destocking.
According to rough statistics, as of now, more than 130 cities have introduced new policies for inventory. What are the main contents of these new policies? How's the effect?

1 ask what are the stock combination punches everywhere?
The destocking policies introduced in various places are mainly divided into five categories.
First, the housing provident fund has become an important tool for destocking in various places. The loan rate of multi-site provident fund exceeds 50%. According to the statistics of the Housing and Construction Department of Sichuan Province, the 2015 provident fund loan contributed a quarter of the total commercial housing sales in Sichuan Province, contributing 1/3 of the stock.
Promoting off-site loans, increasing loan quotas, extending loan years, and relaxing the conditions for extraction have become the "standards" for the new provident fund policies. For example, Jiangxi, Gansu and other provinces have implemented the “integration” policy of the province's provident fund loans, and actively promoted the purchase of houses in different places. Many provinces also indicated that they will expand the coverage of housing provident fund. For example, Sichuan Province will promote housing provident fund to new urban residents for stable employment in this year. Hubei has explored the establishment of a sound housing provident fund system in towns and villages.
Second, many governments have reduced the burden on homebuyers by reducing taxes, deeds and subsidies.
In recent years, Gansu Province has lowered the overall handling fee for housing transfer by 33%. Jiangxi has comprehensively cleaned up administrative fees in the process of real estate development. Other provinces have introduced a number of initiatives such as financial subsidies for the tax deduction of commercial housing transactions. For example, in Ningxia, the part of the household purchase deed tax rate exceeding 1% is subsidized by local finance; Xinjiang calculates the commercial personal housing loan interest rate based on the interest rate of the provident fund loan. After determining the subsidy period, the difference is partially subsidized by the government finance.
Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province officially issued documents recently, and comprehensively lowered the gross profit margin of uncompleted products sold by real estate development enterprises. According to the calculation of the tax department of Nanchang City, it is estimated that in 2016, the local tax and national tax departments of Nanchang will reduce the enterprise income tax by 600 million yuan and 200 million yuan respectively, which will benefit more than 400 real estate development enterprises.
Third, accelerating the citizenization of migrant workers and encouraging qualified migrant workers to buy houses is also an important measure. At present, Shanxi, Shandong, Gansu and other provinces have clearly issued policies to encourage farmers to enter the city to buy houses. For example, Shandong will grant deed tax subsidies, fee reductions, loan interest subsidies, and property fee subsidies to farmers to purchase houses in the city, so as to become a long-term stable housing consumer group.
Fourth, many places have used shantytowns to renovate and resolve real estate inventories through monetized resettlement and government repurchase of commercial housing. For example, in Gansu, 33,000 sets of 46,000 sets of affordable housing will be repurchased from the stock of commercial housing. Fujian and other provinces have clearly stated that they will no longer build new public rental housing.
In addition, Shanxi, Guangxi, Anhui and other provinces have made monetization resettlement as an important channel for shed reform. For example, Guangxi's monetized resettlement helps digested commodity housing to account for about 15% of the total sales area. Anhui Province and other provincial housing and construction departments require that the monetization ratio should be no less than 50%, and Shanxi should require more than 80% of the cities with large commodity housing inventory. Henan introduced a new policy to explore “rental and sales”, which stipulates that after renting a rented apartment for a certain number of years, the eligible application can be purchased directly to purchase the rented public rental house.
Fifth, implement real estate supply side reform. Shandong and Ningxia will encourage enterprises to use the stock housing to develop real estate such as tourism, pension, and entrepreneurship, and carry out diversified operations. For example, Shandong, Hainan and other provinces have explored the transformation of vacant sea view rooms and mountain view houses into time-stayed resorts, pension health real estate, home-style short-term tenants and other holding properties; transforming eligible non-residential inventory into primary and secondary schools And kindergartens, electric commercial houses, urban industrial real estate, etc.
For areas with large real estate inventories, the government also allows development companies to modify the relevant content of urban planning, and adjust the supply of land that has been supplied but not developed to commercial land for commercial use or land for emerging industries.

2 asked farmers to improve their enthusiasm for buying a house?
The reporter visited the property market in Anhui, Henan, Guangxi and other places and found that the current inventory pressure in the third- and fourth-tier cities is relatively high, and some regions have a de-chemicalization cycle of more than 30 months. Li Xuejun, chief engineer of the Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Henan Province, said: “The county-level city has the highest inventory pressure, followed by the provincial city.”
The subsidy policies introduced by various regions have stimulated the demand for home purchases to some extent. The reporter surveyed in Wuyang County, Henan Province, found that according to the sales volume in 2015, the county's property market was 4.6 years. Since June 2015, Wuyang County has implemented the subsidy policy for farmers to enter the city. Farmers entering the city to buy a house will receive a subsidy of 100 yuan per square meter below 144 square meters, and a subsidy of 200 yuan per square meter for newly-married families. At present, the subsidies for the first two batches of 73 suites have been issued, and a total subsidy of 990,000 yuan has been issued. The third batch has been reported to more than 50 sets, showing a gradual increase. “A lot of farmers are paying for subsidies.” Wu Chong, deputy general manager of Wuyang Huaxin Real Estate Co., Ltd. said that during the Spring Festival this year, more than 40 sets were sold, which was close to last year’s sales.
High housing prices are still the most important reason for farmers to buy houses. The 37-year-old Xu Xingzhu is a bricklayer. He has been from his hometown to Hefei in the provincial capital for 4 years, but he has never bought a house. "Although there are tens of thousands of savings, I have seen some houses far from the city center, which can be hundreds of thousands of people. The down payment is still beyond my ability."
In addition to the high prices that are daunting, the interviewed farmers said that they are worried about buying three kinds of questions: First, can they enjoy the public services and resources of local citizens? Second, what about the land and homestead of the hometown? Third, is there a steady income?
Luo Guoan, a researcher at the Institute of Sociology of the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, believes that it is both an economic issue and a social issue for farmers to buy houses in the city and become "new citizens." Farmers' willingness to purchase houses is affected by multiple supporting policies such as employment opportunities, children's schooling, public services, and medical insurance. At the same time, the long-term implementation of the household registration and land policy has caused many peasants to give up the idea of ​​entering the city to settle down. They would rather use the wealth of most of their work to build their own houses in the village.

3 ask the real estate chamber of commerce to actively cut prices?
For the housing price concerns of buyers, Dingchong and other industry insiders believe that from the current point of view, real estate developers in third- and fourth-tier cities generally adopt a stable price strategy. Affected by factors such as cost, it is unlikely that there will be a general sharp price cut in the short term.
“There is no price reduction measures yet.” The head of a large real estate company in Guangxi believes that the decline in real estate sales prices is unlikely. For real estate developers, price cuts are only temporary, not a long-term solution. Unless the cost of land costs and other taxes can be reduced, there is not much room for price cuts.
A director of the Housing Authority of the Central City admitted that although local governments frequently asked developers to cut prices, the destocking policy virtually “sold” housing prices, “the price has increased slightly in stability.”
In Wu Guangming, chairman of Guangxi Poly Real Estate Group, there are only a few real estate developers who are willing to go to inventory by price reduction. It is often that the project losses are serious and cannot be maintained, and the problem of cash flow should be solved. Therefore, price cuts are not a countermeasure for sustainable development, and it is difficult to become a proactive act of developers.
Regarding the strong “price reduction” call in the market, Ren Xiangxiang, chairman of Guangxi Nanning Dingsheng United Real Estate, said that land transfer fees and taxes account for a large proportion of real estate sales costs. “Only if local governments reduce their reliance on 'land finance' and introduce more substantial preferential measures, companies will have room for price cuts.”

Related reading: Ren Zhiqiang's policy of repeatedly bombarding the property market repeatedly said that the differentiation pattern of the property market has intensified
On February 20th, following the announcement in early February that "supporting developers to blow up buildings", "2016 housing prices are bound to skyrocket, and behind-the-scenes push is a local government", the former chairman of Huayuan Real Estate and vice chairman of China Real Estate Association Ren Zhiqiang Once again, the government fired the guns and said that the introduction of the property market adjustment policy was not timely, repeated and inefficient. Individual city purchasers did not implement the State Council’s document requirements, and proposed to reduce the personal income tax to offset the property tax policy, and fundamentally solve the government’s Market attitude issues.

The property market policy adjustment is repeated and inefficient
“China’s real estate has no problems, and the problem is the government.” This is the opening remark of Ren Zhiqiang’s “Real Estate in Change” sub-forum at the 16th Annual Meeting of the Yabuli China Entrepreneur Forum.
"The central government said that it is necessary to cancel various restrictive policies, but the competent authorities are not willing to cancel them completely. This is a very bad phenomenon. Why do you not issue one-time documents in one month? However, when he reduced it, he was very slow." Ren Zhiqiang believes that the recent policy of the government to introduce a series of favorable property market just indicates that "there was a mistake before," but the policy adjustment is not enough, and repeated adjustments will confuse the market and the public is worried.
The key behind this is the attitude of the government towards the market. Whether the government can let the market decide the allocation of resources has become the source of the "the property market is slowly returning to normal" in the eyes of Ren Zhiqiang. Regarding the slack and inefficiency of the department in charge of the property market, Ren Zhiqiang sneered at it and even boldly suggested that "the chairman of the CSRC has changed, and the officials of the Ministry of Housing and Construction can also change it."
On December 21 last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to “resolve real estate stocks”, “appropriately reduce the price of commodity housing, promote mergers and acquisitions in the real estate industry, increase industrial concentration, and eliminate outdated restrictive measures.” Ren Zhiqiang accused some of the city governments of restricting purchases and they were not willing to implement them. They proposed to introduce the policy of “reducing personal income tax to offset the property tax” and truly let the people eat “reassuring”.
In response to the view that “China’s real estate houses are too many, no one can live, and can’t live without it”, Ren Zhiqiang responded by data that the current urban residential stock in China is about 20 billion square meters, and the future urban population may reach 900 million to 1 billion. According to the urbanization rate of 75% and the living area of ​​40 square meters per capita, it may take more than 40 billion square meters. "At present, we must increase at least 20 billion."

The differentiation of the property market is intensifying the government can not do without real estate
Ren Zhiqiang judged that the pattern of differentiation in the property market continued to intensify. In the current first-tier cities or key cities, the houses are very tense and house prices are soaring. The cities with concentrated second-line population are also soaring. The housing prices of newly-migrated cities in the third- and fourth-tier cities are rapidly declining. Due to the heavy dependence on land finance, the government revenues of third- and fourth-tier cities have fallen into low points. Among them, the three provinces in the east are most obvious due to the migration of the population, the decline of the property market, and financial difficulties.
According to the monitoring data of the market organization CRIC, in January 2016, the transaction value of commercial land in 300 cities nationwide was 91 billion yuan, a 23% drop year-on-year; the construction area of ​​the transaction was 26.15 million square meters, a sharp drop of 45% year-on-year for nearly five years. The new low in January. On the whole, the scale of transactions in the national land market has been significantly reduced, and some cities have even fallen more than 50% year-on-year.
The downturn in the real estate industry has directly increased the financial pressure on local governments. "The Chinese government is inseparable from real estate, and it is basically dead after leaving the real estate." Ren Zhiqiang continued to "fire", saying that the real estate industry has occupied a high proportion of the Chinese economy for more than a decade, which determines the degree of government dependence on the real estate industry, and It will also force the government to introduce more property market adjustment policies in 2016.
He uses real estate data to support this view: "From the national tax, real estate one-way tax, five one-way tax, corporate tax, real estate value-added tax accounted for 12%, plus business tax plus income tax, plus education attached , all add up, plus land income of more than 3 trillion, combined to account for more than 50%."
However, unlike the market judgment, Ren Zhiqiang still believes that the scale of real estate completion in 2016 will not drop significantly. "If calculated according to 40 billion, the annual depreciation of 5% will be 2 billion, and the annual depreciation of 2.5% and 10 billion. Therefore, the annual completion is similar to the current size, and there will be no major changes."

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