CASS: GDP in the second quarter will remain around 6.8%

The latest research results released by the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on the 28th predict that China's economy is expected to stabilize in the second quarter of this year, GDP growth rate will remain at around 6.8%, and consumer price index CPI will rise by about 2.4%.
The research results also predict that China's GDP in the first quarter of this year will fall to about 6.7%, and the consumer price index CPI will rise to about 2.2%.
The keynote report released by researcher Wang Hongjun, deputy director of the Comprehensive Economic Strategy Research Department of the Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the global economy in 2016 is characterized by “low growth, low inflation and high uncertainty”.
He said that on the one hand, the economy of developed countries generally showed a weak recovery. At the same time, due to structural deflation, the growth rate of emerging economies is declining. It is expected that Russia and Brazil will continue to decline in 2016. On the other hand, in 2016, the global economy faces recession from emerging market economies, the Fed raises interest rates and the US dollar appreciates. The global financial market volatility and the uncertainty of geopolitical tensions in some areas.
Wang Hongyu said that due to the economic situation, global monetary policy has embarked on a new watershed. It is expected that the Fed will start the rate hike process in the second half of 2016. The Eurozone and Japan will continue to expand their easing efforts, and the US dollar will appreciate sharply, which will have a profound impact on global capital flows and oil price trends.
According to the analysis of the theme report, in the first quarter of 2016, China's economy continued its downward trend in the fourth quarter of last year. Industrial production growth continued to slow down, investment growth slowed down, consumption was sluggish, export situation was severe, and excess capacity continued to progress. GDP is expected to decline. Around 6.7%, the consumer price index CPI rose to around 2.2%.
The theme report also believes that “the bottoming policy has already worked.” The study found that at present, China's economic sector has improved its leading indicators, the contradiction between fiscal revenues and expenditures has increased, and the real estate market has warmed up. The destocking of enterprises has continued. After considering the base effect of last year, it is more likely that economic growth will run smoothly.
Wang Hongqi believes that the reform of the supply side should be intensified, the institutional barriers that constrain the development of the private economy should be removed, and innovation and development should be strongly supported. The government should strengthen the construction of major infrastructure projects, promote the construction of fiscal and taxation management systems such as the reform of the camp, and implement a strong and proactive fiscal policy to prevent the currency deposits from causing fluctuations in the money supply. "The flexible and prudent monetary policy needs to continue to lower the rate and cut interest rates, so as to ensure the smooth running of the economy." Wang Hongyu said.
According to the theme report, in 2016, under the guidance of the five concepts, the five economic tasks of “de-capacity, de-stocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short-boarding” need to be completed. The supply-side structural reform should be further deepened, and the macro-control mode should be innovated. method. Intensify efforts to promote supply-side reforms and promote economic transformation. Implement additional measures on the demand side to ensure steady economic growth in the medium and high-speed range. At the same time, fiscal and monetary policies should also cooperate with each other, from the two sides of supply and demand, so that economic operations remain in a reasonable range of medium and high-speed growth.
In terms of specific economic policy recommendations, the keynote report recommends that appropriate fiscal expenditures and government investment be appropriately increased in fiscal policy; tax reduction policies should be implemented to reduce corporate costs and improve operational efficiency of enterprises; and increase the fiscal deficit rate in stages.
In terms of monetary policy, the theme report recommends maintaining a moderate growth rate of money supply in the context of weak social aggregate demand; cooperating with supply-side reforms to provide appropriate liquidity for the real economy and reduce the financing costs of the real economy; The structural fiscal policy provides a strong interest rate environment for various fiscal special bonds, local government bonds, and government bonds, while reducing the pressure on stock debt; reforming the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to prevent competitive exchange rate devaluation; foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange Innovative money supply channels under the conditions of declining scale.
"Overall, monetary and financial policies need to achieve the goal of stabilizing financial markets, economic growth and structural reforms under the framework of macro-prudential management," said Wang Hongyu.

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