In the second half of the commodity market or the second bottom

In the first half of 2016, the commodity supply and demand index BCI closed out three Yinxian and Sangenyang lines, and the average value in the first six months was 0.12. The average monthly average increase was 1.04%, which was the best performance in the past four years. The Commodity Price Index (BPI) also saw a record 4.3% increase in the number of transmission, outbreak, and cyclical forces, ending 697 points.

This is the information disclosed in the June-June 2016 Commodity Economic Data Report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by the Business Club on June 29. It is worth noting that in the second half of the year, "Jinjiuyinshi" may have a positive impact in the short term, but the economy and commodity markets will once again decline overall and even bottom out. The situation in the second half is BCI or 4 Yin and 2 Yang (July BCI). With a large negative probability, the average BCI, average increase and decrease will be significantly inferior to those in the first half of the year. The BPI will also be significantly reduced, in July and August, or bottomed out to 665 or so. In September and October, there will be a correction around 20 points. In the fourth and fourth quarters, it will be adjusted again. By the end of the year, it will end at 680 points.

In early February of this year, international crude oil began to “counterattack” from 26 US dollars, unilaterally up to 50 US dollars, a single wave rose nearly 100%. Under the influence of crude oil, downstream products such as energy, chemicals, rubber and plastics, and textiles all followed suit and the domino effect was obvious. Moreover, the introduction of real estate stimulus policies in the beginning of the year at the beginning of the year not only directly stimulated the real estate market, but also indirectly stimulated the commodity market. The black line was “arrogant”.

According to the Business Community Commodities 58 list, 63.79% of commodities rose in the first half of 2016 (as of June 24), 36.21% of commodities fell, and the proportion of rising commodities exceeded 60%. Among them, the iron ore category accounted for 4 of the top 10 commodities in the increase list, HRC reached 29.41% of the increase in the number of steel products, the coldest rolled sheet with the smallest increase also rose 10.95%, much higher than the 6.5% semi-annual average In an increase, iron ore and rebar rebounded from their ten-year and fifteen-year lows respectively; the colored sector also started to rebound after suffering waterloo in 2015; tin, zinc, aluminum and other varieties all rose, among which aluminum rebounded from its lowest level in ten years. In the first half of 2016, the fourth nickel in the 2015 loss list not only withdrew its 36.37% decline in the previous year but also increased by 1.07%.

However, last year's agricultural and subsectors with dazzling performances performed in the first half of this year, but the performance of the “Pigs of Eggs” story was unfolding. Soybean meal and live pigs rose continuously. The first half of the rise in live pigs was as high as 22.10%. New record high. However, the eggs were "falling" and fell by 28.17%.

Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of the business community, predicts that the favorable macroeconomic policy in the second half of 2016 is expected to be substantially reduced, and that the strength or hardness of the commodity market will be reduced, and that the Chinese economy will slow down and the tide of the tide brought by the Brexit to the global market will be Further highlighting the global imbalance between supply and demand, the economy and even the market's bullishness will be weakened, the bottom of commodities still needs to be consolidated, and there is a technical need for double bottoming. "Britain's Brexit" has become a watershed for the commodity market. After June, the market will return to rationality. It is expected that the commodity market in the third quarter will still have a wave of gains. However, the market in the second half of the year should not be overly optimistic and does not rule out any increase. The excessively sharply-moving commodities may be pulled back sharply. In the second half of the year, the ratio of rising commodities may shrink, and the proportion of rises and falls may start at 55.