Overcapacity drags down the chemical market

According to the price survey of business clubs, in the March 2014 commodity price fluctuations list, there were 41 kinds of goods in the chemical sector, including a chain-to-quarter ratio, of which there were 8 kinds of commodities, which rose by more than 5%, accounting for 7% of the monitored commodities; The top 3 products were R22 (14.29%), acetic anhydride (13.73%), and glycine (11.11%).

There were 69 kinds of goods with a month-on-month decrease, and 13 kinds of goods with a decrease of more than 5%, which accounted for 11.3% of the monitored goods of the sector; the products with the first three losses were butadiene (-15.85%) and melamine (-9.46). %), PX (-9.12%).

In March 2014, the bulk of commodity prices in the chemical industry rose by -0.76%.

According to the price monitoring of business clubs, there were 22 kinds of commodities in the March increase in the price of the Industrial and Commercial Information Technology Co., Ltd. in March 2014, of which there were 3 types of products with a price increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.4% of the monitored commodities in the list; The products of 3 were R22 (14.29%), **** (8.76%), and epichlorohydrin (6.29%).

There were a total of 43 kinds of goods with a month-on-month decline, including 9 kinds of products with a price drop of more than 5%, accounting for 13.2% of the total number of commodities monitored on the list; the top 3 products were melamine (-9.46%) and ** (-8.90%). ), Ammonium sulfate (-6.31%).

The average monthly increase or decrease is -0.94%.

Business community chemical industry analyst Zhang Ming pointed out that in March the domestic chemical market, a number of industrial chain personality outstanding.

1, phosphorus chemical industry chain. With the exception of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, the rest of the products rose slightly. However, the phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus that lived in the upper reaches of the phosphorus chemical industry chain mainly originated from the increase in the cost of electricity charges and increased passively. Therefore, it was not transmitted to the phosphate fertilizer. Bringing advancement to the corresponding enterprises, while glyphosate, which is located in the downstream of the industrial chain, is mainly driven by strong domestic and American agricultural demand and occupies the forefront of growth. Glyphosate is expected to continue to rise in the second quarter.

2, fluorine chemical industry chain. From the beginning of the methane chloride to the downstream refrigerant and fluororesin products showed an overall upward trend in March. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the current domestic spot market is less, and it is expected to continue rising in April, and the downstream R22, R134a and PTFE will slowly rise before April 22, and the industry conference on April 22 will further unify understanding, or will lay the overall trend of the entire fluorine chemical industry chain in the second quarter.

3, three acid and two alkali plates. March ** and ** were boosted by the cost of raw materials, respectively, but in the middle of the year, they began to be resisted by the downstream. The follow-up gains are not optimistic. Caustic soda and soda ash will continue the trend of adjustment. In April, there was no rebound opportunity.

4, polyurethane plate. Affected by the adjustment of the industry giant's listing price, the prices of pure MDI and BDO rose weakly. However, according to the monitoring data of business clubs, the current market turnover was light, and the operating rate of downstream sponge manufacturers was low, and the procurement intention was weak. The remaining products, such as adipic acid, are due to the large amount of sources that have flooded the market after Shanxi Yangmei Fengxi's 75,000-ton plant drove into the market, causing a short-term supply oversupply, and it is expected that the market will slide below the market trend in April.

5, fertilizer plate. ** Potassium enterprises are currently operating at around 70%, once during the “**” period, they were as low as 40%. The direct consequence was that the domestic spot supply was in short supply and the prices rose unilaterally. It is expected that the current trend will be maintained in April. Affected by this, *based fertilizer also rose slightly in March. Other products, such as urea, monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, and chlorine-based compound fertilizers, are subject to sluggish domestic demand and sluggish external disks. It is difficult for them to rebound in April.

In March 2014, the China Commodity Supply and Demand Index (BCI) released by the Commodity Data Provider - Business Club was -0.48, which was an increase of -1.56%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy continued to contract this month from the previous month. Increased risk.

Zhang Ming believes that the performance of the market in March was in line with expectations - the three and a half months of decline in the chemical market did not stop the market from declining, and the "**" did not bring substantial benefits. Spring demand was under pressure from excess supply. Difficult to have a decisive impact on the market, this is more prominent in the two products of urea, adipic acid, although the market in late March in some products under the effect of oversold rebound signs of stabilization, but the entire chemical industry, There is still at least two months to complete the transition to the upstream channel. After all, long-term unilateral decline does not meet the interests of the upstream and downstream parties. It is expected that the chemical market will further slow down the pace of decline in April, and it is expected to usher in an uptick in early May.