Deep interpretation of the new normal of the machine tool industry, 2015 is expected to go out of the down range

In 2014, China's machine tool industry was further under downward pressure, and the industry structure adjustment was further deepened. The main body of the industry still did not go out of the downside, but the downside has slowed down significantly.

This basic judgment is based on three aspects: one is from the statistical report of the key association enterprises of the machine tool association; the other is the customs import and export data; the third is the daily industry research. As of November 2014, the new orders of key associations of the Machine Tool Association decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, production fell by 2.1%, sales revenue decreased by 1.5%, finished goods inventory increased by 4.3%, and corporate losses reached 36%.

A prominent highlight of the machine tool industry in 2014 was a significant increase in exports. All the above statistics are negative, and the exit is positive. From January to November, the export of machine tools and tools was US$10.5 billion, up 22.5%, of which metal processing machine tools exported US$3.06 billion, up 18.6%.

In the case of a downturn in the industry, this growth rate is very large, and in addition to a significant increase in exports, the structure is improving. The machine tool industry exports are mainly three major categories of products: one is metal processing machine tools; the second is metal cutting tools; the third is abrasive grinding tools.

From January to November, metal processing machine tools accounted for 29% of total exports, of which CNC machine tools accounted for 43%, an increase of 3.3% over 2013. The structure of CNC machine tools is changing.

President Chen pointed out that although the export data is growing, if compared with the import data, the difference is still huge. More than 80% of imported machine tool products are metal processing machines, while metal processing machines in export account for less than 30%, and the structure of import and export products is completely different.

Interpret the characteristics of the stage and adapt to the new normal

Since the second half of 2011, the machine tool industry has been changing. The downturn of the industry is not “step by step”, but has some structural characteristics. When these characteristics are clear, they will find trends and laws of change. President Chen believes that the stage characteristics of the industry mainly include the following aspects:

(1) Heavy-duty machine tools are the hardest hit.

The highest peak of the heavy-duty machine tool industry appeared in 2010. After the new round of adjustment, the production and sales level of the heavy-duty machine tool industry has dropped to 20% to 30% at the peak of 2010, and has continued to decline. Why are heavy machine tools the hardest hit? The reason is that the rapid development of the heavy chemical industry, which has lasted for about 10 years, has ended or is coming to an end. The outstanding feature of the rapid development of the first 10 years is that the power comes from the demand for heavy-duty machine tools in industries such as energy, raw materials, infrastructure construction and real estate.

The rapid development of the heavy chemical industry for 10 years has created a rapid development of the heavy-duty machine tool manufacturing industry, but the economic development is constantly changing. Now that this stage has passed, industry companies must clearly understand this.

(2) The demand for low-end machine tools has declined.

Low-end machine tools mainly refer to non-CNC ordinary machine tools. Compared with the peak of 2011, the current production and sales level has dropped to 20% to 30%, the total market demand is decreasing, and the rate of decline is very fast. The reasons are as follows: First, the equipment needed for the transformation and upgrading of the user industry tends to be high-end; the second is the change in the structure of labor supply and demand.

At present, the relationship between labor supply and demand in China has changed, not in short supply, but in labor shortage, especially in manufacturing. Today's machine operators are mainly operating CNC machine tools, and technical schools are also training CNC machine operators. In addition, the industrialization and popularization of CNC machine tools in China has been completed. Both the manufacturing end and the application end, CNC machine tools are very common. This inevitable change trend has caused the decline of ordinary machine tools.

(3) There is deep meaning behind the growth of exports.

More than a decade ago, the domestic machine tool market was very hot, and industry companies had no time to consider the overseas market. Not many companies have worked hard to develop overseas markets. At present, there are objective demands in the overseas market. Enterprises have intensified their efforts in the development of overseas markets, and subjective initiatives have led to export growth.

However, objective analysis of changes in overseas markets reflects the pattern of the global machine tool market. The changes in the pattern of industrial competition should attract the attention of industry enterprises. First, the process of re-industrialization in developed countries has obviously taken effect, typically the United States, and the United States in the past two years. Exports are growing rapidly, behind the return of US manufacturing; second, the development of manufacturing in other emerging economies and developing countries, which diverts China's manufacturing industry. The typical representative is Vietnam, where demand for machine tools is growing rapidly.

China's manufacturing, machinery manufacturing and machine tool manufacturing industries are facing the double squeeze of developed countries' return and developing country diversion. Now we can't just look at the appearance of data growth, but also the profound meaning behind these data.

(4) The market share of imported machine tools is expanding.

Import data of machine tool products declined from 2011 to 2013. In 2013, metal processing machine imports fell by 26% year-on-year, of which metal cutting machine tools fell 28% year-on-year. In 2014, the import of machine tool products resumed growth. From January to November, the import of machine tools and tools was 16.2 billion US dollars, up 8.8% year-on-year, of which metal processing machine tools were 10 billion US dollars, up 5.5%, although not as significant as exports, but not as significant as exports, but Compared with 2013, it recovered quickly.

Further analysis, from January to November 2014, the proportion of imported machine tools in the Chinese market was 35.3%, which was 31.7% in 2013, indicating that the share of imported machine tools in the Chinese market expanded in 2014. From falling to restoring growth to market share, the simple numbers are very illustrative. Why does the imported machine perform better in the same market? It can only show that the adjustment speed of foreign machine tool enterprises is faster than that of domestic enterprises, and it adapts to market changes more quickly.

(5) The division of the industry structure.

The internal structure of the machine tool industry is changing and the sub-industries are also diverging. A very outstanding performance is the two sub-sectors of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools.

The data in the table below shows the structural differentiation of the sub-sectors within the machine tool industry. The troika “export, consumption and investment” affecting China’s economic growth, investment decline and consumption growth. Gold cutting machine tools are closely related to fixed asset investment. Forming machine tools are closely related to consumer products, and the national economic structure has changed, resulting in different operating conditions of these two sub-sectors. For example, in recent years, the fastest growing machine tool market is the high-speed drilling and attack center, which is used to process consumer 3C products, and the demand is growing rapidly.

(6) The corporate structure is also changing.

In the past few years, there have been two types of companies that have suffered the most from the market:

One is a large enterprise that has long dominated the market; the other is a small enterprise at the lowest end of the industrial value chain. And some excellent private enterprises are growing against the trend, constantly highlighting the highlights, very active, and the differentiation of the corporate structure is going on.

Data comparison table between metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools from January to November


Analysis of the reasons, the advantage of large enterprises lies in the influence of technology, talents, channels and brands. The advantage of private enterprises is the system and mechanism. Under the new normal, the influence of institutions and mechanisms on enterprise development is more and more obvious, and the marginal effect of traditional advantages is getting smaller and smaller.

Several major issues that need to be addressed in the development of the industry

In the face of new changes, new features and new normals in the machine tool industry, how should industry companies respond? President Chen pointed out that industry companies should pay special attention to the following main issues:

(1) High-end products have to cross the "two hurdles." From the low end to the high end of the value chain, it is the main task of transformation and upgrading. Nowadays, although companies are developing high-end products, the status quo is that most high-end products are dependent on imports.

The development stage of high-end machine tools can be summarized into three levels: from being able to doing, to doing well, to making market competitiveness.

“Can do” means that the product basically has the functional requirements of high-end products, such as five-axis linkage, turning-milling compound and large-size gantry. Now many companies can make it, but it is “like a god”, and the performance is not In terms of accuracy, speed, static characteristics, dynamic characteristics and reliability, it is very different from foreign counterparts.

In the past 10 years, one of the major achievements of China's machine tool industry is that high-end products can't be done from "can't do" to "can do". This is not easy, but the problem is that it can't just stay at this stage. It is just a transitional stage. The "good" refers to the application, and now the market application results are too small.

The biggest problem for high-end products to cross this "two hurdles" is misunderstanding. Now many R&D personnel, business managers and industry experts often think that "can do" to "do" is the "last mile". In fact, it is wrong. It is only half completed, and it definitely needs more investment.

(2) About market segmentation and market specialization. The low-end products of the machine tools are often accompanied by the versatility of the functions. The main service form is to provide users with physical products. The high-end products are accompanied by customization, which is to meet the special needs of users and is the solution. After the market shrinks, all enterprises are stepping up their efforts in market development: on the one hand, they work hard on the breadth to clear the "dead corner"; on the other hand, they work hard in the depth and aim at a limited number of points in the market. The former often does not bring qualitative improvement to the enterprise, while the latter chooses the high-end route, and the entry point is to study the market segment. And the solution is from in-depth study of the segmentation of the user market.

Market segmentation brings market specialization. The specialization mentioned before is product specialization, but now that you want to make a difference in the high-end market, you must do market specialization, that is, professionally serve an industry, rather than simply doing a certain product. Taking automobile engine manufacturing as an example, monopolistic enterprises are more than a dozen companies in Germany and Japan. If you study them carefully, you will find that these companies are characterized by market specialization and are "manufacturing experts" in the field of automobile engines. There is no such enterprise in China at present, so the next development direction is to start from the research of market segments and form a large number of market specialized types of enterprises. Only in this way can we enter key users such as aerospace.

(3) About homogenization and differentiation. Chen Chenchang believes that the most urgent problem that the current machine tool industry needs to solve is the problem of homogenization. It is better not to be high-end, but also to be differentiated. After marketization, each enterprise will find its own position according to its own advantages. It cannot require all enterprises to take the high-end route, but even if it does not take the high-end, it must have its own unique characteristics.

Having said that, President Chen stressed:

"We must reflect on the development of China's machine tool industry in the past 10 years. It can be said that to some extent, we have gradually fallen into a state of strategic convergence in the past 10 years. The common goal of the industry is to become bigger and stronger, leading to the serious low-end homogeneity. The new round of transformation and upgrading must avoid this kind of strategic convergence. The low-end and mid-end products will make the difference better, and there is also much to be done."

(4) Hard and soft problems. For the gap between the Chinese and foreign machine tool industry, quality, brand, core technology and talents are often talked about. How to solve it?

There is also a need for strategic thinking, and President Chen summarizes them as hard and soft:

Hard questions refer to abilities, means, conditions, and high-end talents. In short, they are problems that funds can solve or basically solve; while soft problems refer to systems, culture, mechanisms, environments, values, and codes of conduct. aspect. The soft problem has two characteristics: First, the funds may not be solved; second, the cycle is long, the effect is slow, and the dominant effect is not obvious.

The hard issue is not difficult to solve now, and China does not currently lack funds. Many companies in the industry have been armed to the teeth, and even many European companies are not as equipped as China. However, transformation and upgrading can not only focus on hard issues, but also pay more attention to the solution of soft problems. It can be said that the soft problem is a hard task of transformation and upgrading. Hard problems are tangible, simple, superficial, and non-essential; soft problems are intangible, complex, deep, and essential.

(5) About Internet thinking. Today's Internet-related concepts are dazzling, such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 3D printing, but industry companies must clearly understand that this is indeed an important development trend. Now the entire machine tool industry is in an unprecedented transition period between the unprecedented transformation and upgrading and the new generation of information technology booming. This provides an opportunity for the machine tool industry to accurately and scientifically grasp this opportunity.

For the new generation of information technology, do not passively resist, do not blindly follow the trend, believe that the traditional industry has no future, the correct attitude should be active integration. In essence, information technology such as the Internet provides more advanced tools for the machine tool industry, and a more efficient way to make communication between enterprises and users more close, and information access is more convenient.

Active transformation, the introduction of the convention, praise for the machine tool association

The current machine tool industry is undergoing transformation and upgrading, and the association is also undergoing transformation and upgrading. There are three reasons for the transformation and upgrading of the association: First, the industry is undergoing profound transformation and upgrading; second, the government is undergoing transformation, the core of government transformation is the administration of decentralization; and the third is that the state requires the reform of the social organization management system. The transformation goal of the association is to build a modern social organization. Its core function is to "provide services, reflect demands, and regulate behaviors."

Recently, through the Standing Committee of China Machine Tool Industry Association, the “China Convention on Unfair Competition in Machine Tool Industry” (the “Convention”) was officially released, expressing that the majority of enterprises in the industry hope to establish “open, fair and just”. The demands of the market environment. President Chen said that the reasons for the publication of the Convention were: on the one hand, because of the low-end homogenization of the industry and overcapacity, the vicious competition was serious, which seriously damaged the interests of enterprises and even users; on the other hand, it was because The function of the association. The Convention emphasizes voluntary participation and takes the initiative to fulfill its responsibilities. The publication of the Convention is a bold attempt for the Machine Tool Association and the first step in the active reform of the Machine Tool Association. It sends a collective voice and broadly creates positive public opinion.

Regarding the forecast of China's machine tool market in 2015, President Chen believes that the industry should be flat or slightly growing, and it will start to step out of the downside, and the structural differentiation within the industry will further intensify.

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