Abstract Vladislav Soluviev, the first executive vice president of Rusal, Russia’s largest aluminum producer, recently highlighted that as the global economy recovers and aluminum production declines significantly, the balance between supply and demand in the global aluminum market is gradually improving. However, he emphasized that in the coming years, global aluminum output will continue to decrease. According to Rusal, aluminum prices have hit a historic low, and if only supply and demand are considered, the price is expected to rise from around $2,000 per ton in 2014 to $2,250 in 2015 and $2,400 in 2016.
Soluviev pointed out that global primary aluminum consumption is projected to grow by 6% in 2013, reaching 51.2 million tons. This growth is driven by strong performance in key markets. China leads with a 10% increase in consumption, followed closely by India, Asia (excluding China and India), and North America, which recorded growth rates of 6%, 5%, and 4%, respectively. Even Europe is expected to see a modest 1.5% increase. From 2013 to 2015, non-China global aluminum consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4%, adding about 2 million tons annually.
Since the fourth quarter of 2013, the global aluminum market (excluding China) has experienced a growing supply deficit. In 2013, the gap was 429,000 tons, rising to 1.3 million tons in 2014 and 2015, and further widening to 1.9 million and 2.4 million tons in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
The global financial crisis has posed significant challenges to the aluminum industry, leading to major shifts in the market. In response to overcapacity and fluctuating prices, Rusal shut down its least efficient European smelter in 2013, cutting production by 324,700 tons—equivalent to 8% of its 2012 capacity. Soluviev stressed that for the industry to fully recover, supply must be controlled. Despite the current supply-demand imbalance in the global market (excluding China), further production cuts are still necessary. In 2013 alone, Rusal reduced its output by an additional 647,500 tons.
Between 2012 and 2013, global aluminum production capacity (excluding China) fell by 1.4 million and 1.2 million tons, respectively, due to the closure of numerous smelters worldwide. Soluviev expects this trend to continue in 2014, with an estimated reduction of another 1 to 1.5 million tons in global aluminum production capacity (excluding China).
He also noted that 10 years ago, China's aluminum consumption was just 3 million tons. With rapid infrastructure development, a booming automotive sector, and rising demand for household appliances in rural areas, China's aluminum consumption has surged dramatically. Today, it is the world’s largest consumer, using 25 million tons in 2013, accounting for nearly 46% of global consumption. At the same time, China's aluminum production has also grown rapidly, now representing 40% of the world’s total output.
However, this surge in production has led to overcapacity, resulting in corporate losses and falling prices. Soluviev believes that only through strategic supply management can the aluminum market stabilize and begin to rebound.A Robe hook is a great way to hang bath towels and clothing to dry, and they aren't just for the bathroom. They are also great storage solutions for entryways, laundry rooms, kitchens, and bedrooms.
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