Abstract The national economy will be released in the third quarter. A number of experts said that from the recent steady rise in various economic data, GDP growth in the third quarter will be better than in the second quarter, and GDP growth is expected to reach 7.8% in the third quarter. The latest data released by the Bureau of Statistics shows that
The national economy will be released in the third quarter. A number of experts said that from the recent steady rise in various economic data, GDP growth in the third quarter will be better than in the second quarter, and GDP growth is expected to reach 7.8% in the third quarter. According to the latest data released by the Bureau of Statistics, in August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.4% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points faster than that of July, and increased by 0.93% from the previous month. Fixed asset investment increased by 1.61% in August. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 1,888.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%.
“In the past two months, industrial production has grown steadily and export activities have gradually recovered. Infrastructure investment has remained strong and manufacturing investment has recovered. The government has clearly defined its economic growth targets while emphasizing the balanced development of consumption and investment, effectively boosting market confidence.†Morgan Zhu Haibin, chief economist at Chase China, said.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, pointed out that the recent data once again conveyed a good signal, and the rebound in GDP growth in the third quarter is a high probability event. Both domestic demand and external demand have improved, with the former stemming from a steady growth policy and the latter stemming from the recovery of advanced economies. Since economic activity has a certain inertia, unless there is an unexpected sudden shock, the total demand is unlikely to deteriorate significantly in the short term. He expects GDP growth in the third quarter will reach 7.8%.
“The GDP growth rate in the third quarter may be 7.8%, and the fourth quarter may be 7.6%. The annual economic growth rate is roughly 7.7%.†Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, also visited the third and fourth quarters. The GDP growth rate made the above forecast.
However, Fan Jianping believes that the current round of economic recovery is mainly due to the recovery of the local real estate market, and can not bring too much optimistic information.
Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute, also believes that good data confirms the judgment that the economic situation in the third quarter is improving compared with the second quarter. The data also shows that China's economic transformation is a bottom-line transformation. The forward-looking and predictive nature of the policy is increasing. The economic growth rate may continue the pattern of “seven ups and eightsâ€. The focus of the policy is to promote transformation and accelerate the release of the reform dividend.
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