The data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 12th also showed that foreign trade was relatively stable in the third quarter. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China’s total import and export value was 19.07 trillion yuan, equivalent to 3.06 trillion US dollars, an increase of 7.7%. However, due to the high base last year, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in September showed a slight decline.
From a macro perspective, China's dependence on foreign trade continued to fall. The dependence on foreign trade in the first half of the year was 50.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year. This also indicates that the economic growth of the entire third quarter will still be dominated by domestic demand.
Zheng Yuesheng, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Integrated Statistics, said that according to the survey data of nearly 2,000 enterprises on the Internet by the General Administration of Customs at the end of September, China’s export manager index was 37.8 in September this year, up 1.7 from August. For the second consecutive month, the chain rebounded. It is expected that in the next two or three months, China's foreign trade exports will show steady development.
In addition to foreign trade data, the National Bureau of Statistics will release price data for September on Monday, and will hold a third quarter economic data conference on the 18th to announce the overall national economic situation in the third quarter.
According to the National Agricultural Wholesale Price Index released by the Ministry of Agriculture in September, the wholesale price index of agricultural products and the wholesale price index of “vegetable basket†products have increased on the year-on-year index compared with August, which indicates that the upcoming September CPI may be released. Continue to rise.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, expects CPI to rebound to 2.9% in September, and CPI close to 3% will make the market worry about future prices.
Previously, when the PMI data was released, experts from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reminded that we should pay attention to the price increase pressure formed during the economic stabilization and recovery process. PMI surveys show that a variety of price factors have begun to put pressure on companies to raise prices. Among the problems reflected by enterprises in September, 41% accounted for the shortage of funds; 22.8% reflected the price increase; 45.9% reflected the increase in labor costs; 43% reflected the lack of orders; and 29.7 reflected the increase in transportation costs %.
On the PPI, according to data monitored by the Ministry of Commerce, the prices of chemical and rubber products rebounded sharply in September, at 0.6% and 4% respectively, while the prices of minerals, ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals were all from last month. Positive growth turned to a month-on-month decline, and the rebound in demand has weakened the prices of these products, and the short-term recovery trend of PPI has also slowed down.
Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo [microblogging], predicted that the PPI in September was -1.4%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month.
For other data to be released on the 18th, Goldman Sachs Gaohua expects that the industrial growth rate in September will drop slightly from 10.4% in August to 10.2%. The implied seasonal adjustment will reduce the annual growth rate from 15.4% in August to 9.7%. It is expected that the cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment in January-September will be flat at 20.3%, implied in September. The rate will drop from 21.5% in August to 20.3%; retail sales in September are expected to fall to 13.2% from 13.4% in August.
From the economic situation since the third quarter, the driving force for the economic recovery in the third quarter came from the recovery of industrial production from July to August. Since the country accelerated the policy of “stable growth, restructuring, and reform†in the middle of the year, many industries, including rail transit, real estate, machinery manufacturing, household appliances, and automobiles, have been motivated by policies, which have driven the sales volume of steel and cement. Rise. After the July data showed signs of stabilization, real economic data such as industry, investment and consumption continued to recover in August, while the rising electricity consumption data also confirmed the authenticity of production recovery.
However, the upward pressure on prices and the price reversal trend seen by some commodities suggest that the pressure from overcapacity and inflation in the government's regulation will increase. Under the constant dynamic de-capacity and deleveraging pressure, the Chinese economy may continue to fluctuate.
Yang Weiwei, an analyst at Lianxun Securities, believes that GDP in the third quarter will reach 7.9%. In the absence of significant start-up of terminal demand, endogenous inventory changes may be the key to the economic recovery in the third quarter, so this recovery may be short-term.
Statistics Bureau interprets September economic data: CPI new price increase factors increase
The National Bureau of Statistics released today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Producer Ex-factory Price Index (PPI) data showed that CPI rose by 0.8% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year; PPI rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year. In this regard, Yu Qiumei, senior statistician of the Urban Bureau of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted it.
The increase in new price increases in September and September was the direct cause of the increase in CPI year-on-year growth. According to the released data, the new price increase factor in the CPI year-on-year increase in September was 2.3 percentage points, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from August; the hike factor was 0.8 percentage points, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in August. Due to the new price increase factor and the hikes, the net increase of 0.5 percentage points after offsetting, so the CPI growth in September increased by 0.5 percentage points compared with August.
The new price increase factor in the CPI year-on-year increase in September increased more, which was reflected in the CPI increase of 0.8%, which is due to various reasons.
From the ring data of food prices, food prices in September rose by 1.5% month-on-month, slightly higher than the average month-on-month increase of 1.1% in the same month of 2003-2012, affecting CPI by about 0.51 percentage points. Among them, the price of fresh eggs, fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and pork increased by 7.9%, 6.7%, 5.4% and 2.2% respectively, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.44 percentage points. The price of food has risen more than the previous month. It has both Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday factors as well as seasonal influence factors. It is also related to droughts and floods in some areas.
From the non-food price data, non-food prices rose by 0.4% in September, affecting CPI by about 0.30 percentage points. Among them, the clothing price increased by 1.2% due to the change of the season; the price of gasoline and diesel rose by 2.8% and 2.9% respectively due to the price adjustment; the tourism price increased by 2.8%.
Second, the ex-factory price of industrial producers continued to rise in September, and the year-on-year decline was further narrowed, indicating that market demand is becoming more active and the macro economy continues to rise steadily. From the ring data, industrial producers' ex-factory prices and purchase prices continued to rise in September, up from 0.1% in August, up 0.2% from the previous month. Among them, the ex-factory prices of oil and natural gas extraction, petroleum processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing products rose by 2.1%, 2.3%, 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. The ex-factory price of coal fell by 0.2% from the previous month, narrowing by 1.3 percentage points from the decline in August, and the decline slowed down. From the year-on-year data, the ex-factory price and purchase price of industrial producers fell by 1.3% and 1.6% respectively in September. The year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in August, and the purchase price fell by the same amount as in August.
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