Abstract Some time ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced the "Regulations for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "Specifications"), and made clear regulations on the production scale, process technology, energy consumption, and environmental protection for new investment capacity and stock capacity. &n
Some time ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced the "Regulations for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "Specifications"), and made clear regulations on the production scale, process technology, energy consumption, and environmental protection for new investment capacity and stock capacity. As early as July 15, 2013, the "Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions") once proposed "to control the production of photovoltaic power generation while controlling the total production capacity of photovoltaic manufacturing and speeding up the elimination. The basic principles of backward production capacity, efforts to promote industrial restructuring and technological progress, and preliminary provisions on new standards for new production capacity, the "Specifications" can be regarded as specific policies for the "Opinions".
Since 2013, the global PV market has maintained growth, but the industry's prosperity is still at a low level due to the large-scale excess capacity. The company's own investment enthusiasm is low, and there are certain constraints on external financing. Although the technical requirements for new cell and module capacity are high in the Code, it has little impact on the industry in the short term.
It is important to pay close attention to the specific requirements of the Code for stock capacity, including overall scale, product performance and energy consumption. The technical requirements for product performance and energy consumption are not high for the current state of the industry, but they have established certain industry entry barriers for capacity and production scale in previous years.
The “Specifications†require polysilicon single-phase capacity and component capacity to reach 3,000 tons/year and 200MWp respectively. Last year, the actual production reached 50% of the production capacity. The estimated production capacity is equivalent to 345 million yuan and 780 million yuan respectively. threshold. In the "Specifications", enterprises and projects that do not meet the requirements of this Code shall not enjoy the policy support of export tax rebates and domestic application support.
The polysilicon industry has a high degree of concentration and a large cost difference. Small-scale crystalline silicon enterprises tend to be backward in technology and at a disadvantage in cost. At the current market price level of 18 US dollars / kg, small-scale crystalline silicon production capacity has been sealed, so the "Specifications" have little effect on the existing crystalline silicon supply pattern. However, the industry of components is less concentrated and the degree of product homogeneity is higher. The threshold of scale can eliminate small-scale enterprises of a certain scale.
Overall, the “Specifications†have higher requirements for new capacity technologies, but the industry boom in the short term has limited impact on the industry. The scale threshold for the establishment of stock capacity will promote industry consolidation, and the component links will be more affected. The policy content of the "Opinions" on controlling new production capacity has been well reflected in the "Specifications", and the "guaranteed and pressured" credit policy has been further clarified in the "Specifications".
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