Daily Comment: Weak steel demand did not change the price of steel in a stable and volatile

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Today's point of view

Today, the domestic steel market price is still stable, and some varieties and individual markets have been adjusted, but the scope is limited. The operation of the merchants is still mainly based on shipments, but the effect is generally unsatisfactory. Indeed, the current high temperature season continues, and the terminal downstream demand is difficult to improve. At the end of the month, when the funds are more tense, the terminal enterprises basically purchase on demand. In terms of steel mills, the settlement price or guidance price of steel mills in the second half of the year has been introduced, and it is difficult to increase or decrease the cost. The cost is still running at a high level. Near-term production or maintenance continues, the supply side is still good, at the same time, the overall level of inventory pressure is not large, it is expected that the mainstream of the steel market will continue to run smoothly.

Macro hotspot

1. [Domestic commodity futures closed at a different trend, with egg leading up and Zheng coal leading down] Eggs rose 1.9%, crude oil rose more than 1%, Zhengyou, soybean meal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, Shanghai lead, thread, Shanghai nickel, Hot coils, Shanghai copper, sugar, fuel, Shanghai tin, rubber, Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, coke, etc. closed up. Zheng coal and Zheng alcohol fell more than 1%, and glass, Shanghai zinc, asphalt, apple, Shanghai aluminum, coking coal, Zheng cotton, plastics, iron ore, cotton yarn, etc. closed down.

2. [The three major indexes have no improvement in the afternoon, and the low-priced stocks have become market pioneers]

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2882.23 points, down 0.74%, with a turnover of 157.5 billion.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9352.25 points, down 1.18%, with a turnover of 222.7 billion.

The GEM closed at 1606.12 points, down 1.61%, with a turnover of 76.2 billion.

3. [The red line delineation and implementation of the ecological protection will be included in the scope of the central environmental protection inspector] Liu Youbin, spokesperson of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said that at present, 14 provinces have issued the red line of ecological protection in the administrative region, and Tianjin will be released soon. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is formulating the “Administrative Measures for Ecological Protection Red Lines”, building a national red line supervision platform for ecological protection, and incorporating the red line definition and implementation of ecological protection into the scope of central environmental protection inspection. We will implement the main responsibility of local party committees and governments to define and strictly abide by the red line of ecological protection. We will strictly pursue accountability for destroying the illegal activities of the ecological protection red line and ensure that the red line is well-planned and secure.

4. US President Trump: A very good dialogue on trade with the Chairman of the European Commission and the EU representative reached a strong consensus. Everyone believes in the idea of ​​zero tariff, zero barrier and zero subsidy.

The current work on the development of documents has begun and progress has been made rapidly.

The EU countries will open up to the United States and enjoy the efforts the United States has made for them.

Market today

Raw material

Domestic mines: Some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas increased slightly. The prices of Qianxi and Qian'an in Hebei Province rose by RMB 10/ton. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 660-670 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry-based tax-included cash out 660-670 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 680-690 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 665-675 yuan / ton; Kuancheng 65% dry basis tax-included cash factory 580 tons;

Imported mines: The spot market of imported ore on the 26th is generally good. The morning offer was stable compared with yesterday. The mainstream price of PB powder in Tangshan area was 480 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of PB powder in Shandong area was 470 yuan/ton. The enthusiasm of the steel mills was lower than yesterday. Some steel mills purchased on demand, but the firm prices were lower. Some traders were bullish in the afternoon and the enquiries were more positive. As of press time, the spot market transaction was slightly lighter. Market transactions: Caofeidian Jinbuba powder 424; Jingtang Port PB powder 475; Qingdao Port PB powder 467, Newman powder 482; Rizhao Port Newman powder 480; Lianyungang Newman powder 480. (above unit: yuan / ton)

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices are biased. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,241 yuan/ton, which was 6 yuan/ton higher than that of the previous trading day. Except for the rise and fall of the East China region, the rest of the region rose steadily, including the price in the northeast region. The whole line rose. Specifically, today's snails fluctuated widely, and the spot market demand showed a divergence. Some areas were affected by high temperature and rainy weather, and the transaction was weak. In the late afternoon, the snails went higher, and the spot market transactions improved. The overall transaction was acceptable. From the statistics of the statistics of our network on the 26th, the rebar factory warehouse was reduced by 9.53 to 171.56, the social library was 447.55 to 8.09, the wire factory was reduced by 48.84 to 3.82, the social library was reduced by 118.17 to 2.18, and the building materials inventory remained double, which supported the market price. The strength is strong, so the demand performance is unstable, but the market mentality is relatively good. It is expected that domestic construction steel prices will continue to strengthen and strengthen in the short term.

Hot-rolled coil: Today, the hot rolling price of 24 major cities in the country is consolidating. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils is 4322 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average national price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils is 4265. Yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market was light in early trading, the price was loose, and the market was boosted by the futures. The market sentiment was boosted, the merchants' prices were steady, and the transaction was slightly improved. According to the statistics of this website, the national hot-rolled inventory this week was 2.112 million tons, down 152,000 tons from last week, an increase of 51,300 tons month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 88,200 tons. At present, there is still no significant improvement in demand. However, the sharp drop in supply at the supply end this week has also led to a decline in the factory warehouse. As a result, the market has rebounded, but the overall fundamentals are mostly profitable. It is still difficult to see a clear trend in the short term. Long and short interweaving stages. In addition, the price of Tangshan billet market today rose by RMB 10/ton, and the current price of carbon billet was RMB 3,760/ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Plate: Today's domestic plate market price is high, the average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide is 4360 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. As the overall billet continues to improve, the steel companies maintain their expectations for the ex-factory price increase. In addition, due to the shock of the futures market and the slight increase in prices, the transaction situation in some regions has improved. However, relatively speaking, the market operation expectation at this stage still tends to be fast shipping, so the enthusiasm of the merchants to catch up is not high. It is expected that the domestic plate market price will remain at a high level for consolidation tomorrow.

Cold-rolled coils: Today's national cold-rolled prices are stable. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,726 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton from the previous working day. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4680 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4680 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4530 yuan / ton. In terms of the market: black commodity futures continued to rise, and the market mentality was supported. However, due to the price increase and difficult to ship, the spot market generally held steady. In addition to a slight increase of 10/ton in Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing were slightly lowered by RMB 20/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. At present, the market demand in various regions is weak and often accompanied by high temperature and heavy rain, and the market is not well shipped. Overall, it is expected that the market price of cold-rolled spot tomorrow will continue to fluctuate and consolidate.

Steel: Today, the domestic steel market price is high, and the spot resource price performance is relatively firm. Tangshan steel was stable overall in the morning. Only a few transactions were acceptable in the afternoon. The overall transaction was slightly general. Although the billet led by 10 yuan/ton, due to insufficient demand for steel, the overall transaction was not outstanding. In the afternoon, some low-priced transactions turned better, and then the low-cost resources were abolished. Especially the angle steel performance was particularly prominent. In the afternoon, the angle steel rose by 20 yuan/ton, and the market mentality also improved. East China's profile prices are consolidating at a high level. As the price of billet is firm and the ex-factory price of some steel enterprises is raised, the spot cost is strongly supported. In addition, the current resource replenishment is relatively slow, so the spot price is maintained at a high level and some cities are low. The price of South China's profile market is stable, and the low-end resources are moving closer to the high. Although billet prices continue to rise, downstream demand in South China is weak, and business confidence is insufficient. It is expected that although the short-term spot has cost support, but domestic demand is difficult to maintain the price increase due to seasonal factors, it is expected that the domestic spot market price will continue to strengthen and operate tomorrow.

Steel pipe: Domestic welded pipe prices rose slightly on the 26th. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4403 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm national average price 5121 yuan / ton, up from the previous trading day 5 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 405mm national average price 5259 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day price. Raw materials: 26th Tangshan Ruifeng strip, 345-355 rose 10 reported 3970, 610-635 rose 20 reported 4140, including tax factory. On the 26th, Shandong hot-rolled tube billet temporarily stabilized and waited, Φ75-130 steel mill direct tax-included mainstream offer: Luli 4150, Jiang Xin 4150, Sande 4150, Handan Iron and Steel 4170. 26th Jiangsu hot-rolled tube bill fell 10-60 , 20# Huaigang 4450 Zhongtian 4350 Longteng 4330 Changqiang 4310 East 4300, the above cash from the price increase. Pipe factory: welded pipe: 26th Youfa Steel Pipe Group price increase 20,4 inch 3.5 galvanized pipe listing price: Youfa 5490, Zhengyuan 5550, Youfa steel and plastic pipe 9040. 26 Tianjin Lida steel pipe all products are unified upward 20 yuan / ton, 4 inch * 3.5 listing price: welded pipe 4500, galvanized pipe 5170, steel plastic pipe 7330, overweight including tax. On the 26th, the price of all products of Juncheng Steel Pipe was raised by 20, 4 inches and 3.5. The price of the welded pipe was 4450, the galvanized pipe was 5580, and the steel and plastic pipe was 8060. On the 26th, Qian'an Zhengda General Steel Tube Co., Ltd. raised the price of all products by RMB 20/ton. Seamless pipe: Linyi seamless pipe factory price is stable, Linyi mainstream pipe factory hot rolling mill base price reported 4850 yuan / ton, cold drawn base price 5150 yuan / ton. Market: Today, domestic steel pipe prices are stable and strong, and market transactions are weak. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the ex-factory prices of welded pipes and galvanized pipes of various mainstream pipe factories have increased slightly due to environmental protection and production restrictions. However, as far as traders are concerned, they are limited by the more general downstream demand, and the possibility of price increases is small, and the willingness to rise is weak. Due to seasonal factors, the downstream operating rate is still acceptable, but the terminal procurement volume is low, and the traders' mentality is generally biased. The stocks of various traders have increased slightly compared with the previous period. It is expected that the prices of domestic welded pipes and galvanized pipes will become stable and strong in the short term. Seamless pipe: Shandong pipe billet is temporarily stable, Jiangsu pipe billet is small, the pipe factory has no change, and the market holds steady price. The impact of high temperature, downstream procurement is difficult to increase the volume, the market turnover is weak, and some merchants let the shipments. The inventory level is mostly maintained at a normal low level, mainly based on common specifications. It is expected that the price of domestic seamless pipes will be stable in the short term.

Futures: Today, the domestic black commodity period is running in a narrow range. At this stage, the main contract of the black department is 01 contract, and the overall transaction remains shrinking. Specifically, the main building materials inventory data of the major cities announced by Mysteel today, 35 of them The main city rebar social inventory reported 4,475,500 tons, down 8.09. Steel mills reported a total of 1,175,600 tons, down 9.53. Compared with the inventory data of the steel mesh, the data of my steel network shows the toughness of downstream demand, and the high temperature weather has not brought much impact to the construction of the downstream construction site. The performance of the disk is first and then swayed and oscillated. Overall, from the daily line, the trend of various black varieties is currently in the upper channel of the shock, and there is no major change in the fundamentals. The above recommendations are recommended, and the bargain-hunting is dominant, paying attention to the position.

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