In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has made major breakthroughs in various fields such as manned space flight and high-speed railway. New technologies, new products and new models such as new energy vehicles, driverless vehicles, artificial intelligence and cloud computing have emerged. On the other hand, the shortage of core technology and high dependence on foreign countries have not fundamentally changed.
According to an authoritative survey disclosed recently, 32% of the more than 130 key basic materials are blank in China. Not only 95% of high-end chips rely on imports, but more than 95% of manufacturing and testing equipment on high-end CNC machine tools, equipment, and aerospace engines are difficult to “Made in Chinaâ€.
What is the path to China's technological strength? What are the shortcomings compared with the United States? Huang Guangqiao, associate professor of Shanghai Institute of Science, Science and Culture, Shanghai Jiaotong University, and Huang Qingqiao, author of Science and Technology Remodeling China, Li Hui, associate researcher of Shanghai Institute of Science, and Huang Dan, associate professor of Shanghai University of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
Don't render high but not self dwarf
Liberation Monday: In recent years, the "new four major inventions" represented by high-speed rail, scan code payment, shared bicycles and online shopping have received widespread attention. However, it has also been suggested that the "new invention" is a bit exaggerated.
Huang Dan: For this debate, we must grasp from the scope of innovation. In the "new four inventions", there are technological innovations, such as high-speed rail; there are also commercial model upgrades, such as sharing bicycles. It is difficult for us to evaluate these new things with a unified standard. In general, these new technologies, new products, and new formats are the embodiment of China's comprehensive national strength.
Huang Qingqiao: Some people disagree with the "new four major inventions", largely because of concerns that key core technologies cannot be self-sufficient. To look at this phenomenon rationally, we need to return to the basic national conditions. Although China has achieved great success today, we are still in the primary stage of socialism. We should not over-exaggerate and elevate our level of technology, but we cannot dwarf ourselves.
Liberation Monday: The high-speed rail has become a new business card for China to go to the world. Excuse me, how did the "sunset industry" once become a "star industry"?
Huang Qingqiao: With the rise of various transportation modes and tools such as highway and automobile industry, large aircraft and aviation industry, oil and gas pipelines, the advantages of traditional railways born in the 19th century are no longer obvious. However, since the end of the 20th century, due to the world's energy shortage and environmental crisis, the superiority of railway transportation has been re-recognized. In particular, based on the in-depth application of information technology, automation technology, manufacturing technology and materials science in the railway industry, the technical standards and carrying capacity of railways have been improved.
The reason why China can seize the opportunity to vigorously develop high-speed rail is based on a profound grasp of the national conditions. The development of high-speed rail requires two basic conditions: one is to have enough room for expansion, and the other is to have enough people to ride. These two points are very important, otherwise the efficiency advantage of high-speed rail will be more difficult to play.
It should be acknowledged that China's high-speed rail mainly relied on technology imports at the initial stage to introduce advanced technologies from Germany, Japan and France. For the late-developing countries, market-for-technology is the necessary stage and necessary link to achieve high-tech autonomy. This is not a shameful thing, but rather a performance that is good at learning.
However, China's high-speed rail is not satisfied with the introduction and imitation, but creatively walked out a path of adhering to original innovation, integrated innovation and introduction, digestion and absorption, and gradually grasped and successfully mastered design and construction, equipment manufacturing, vehicle control, system integration, The high-speed rail complete technical system of operation and management has gradually realized the localization of the core technology system and equipment.
Liberation on Monday: Comrade Mao Zedong once said: "There are things in the world that we can't have, but important things, such as airplanes and cars, we must have them." Why is the domestic large aircraft indispensable? When can we fly on our big plane?
Huang Qingqiao: In short, the reasons for the development of large aircraft are two sentences: one is that there is money to make, and the other is strategic.
The aviation industry is a typical knowledge-intensive, technology-intensive, capital-intensive industry. The industrial chain is very long, and the spillover effects of intelligence, technology, and economy are difficult to estimate. Taking the development of an aeroengine as an example, the value created by the unit weight is 1, the number of ships, the number of cars is 9, the number of computers is 300, the number of regional aircraft is 800, and the number of aircraft engines is up to 1400. Thus, it is known as the world's industrial product "the pearl of the crown".
Huang Dan: Large aircraft generally refers to transport aircraft with a total take-off of more than 100 tons, including military large transport aircraft and civilian large transport aircraft. It also includes military aircraft with a voyage of 3,000 kilometers or civilian passenger aircraft with a ride of more than 100 seats. In China, more than 150 passenger planes are called big passenger planes. At present, more than 20 companies have booked the large-scale passenger aircraft C919 independently developed by China, including international customers such as General Electric Leasing.
The success of the first flight does not mean that ordinary people can immediately take a large domestic aircraft. The C919 will also conduct a large number of airworthiness compliance verification and validation work through hundreds of thousands of hours of flight, comprehensively check the aircraft's design indicators and the functional status of each system, and obtain airworthiness certificates from the civil aviation system. Broadly speaking, the airworthiness certification of the C919 consists of five phases, which are now in the fourth phase, the planned implementation phase. It is optimistic that in the next three to five years, the C919 can complete the test flight forensics mission and deliver it.
To achieve, run, and lead, you need to make the best use of it and vomit it.
Liberation Monday: High-speed rail, big planes and a resounding name - "super engineering." Excuse me, what kind of "super heroes" are behind them?
Li Hui: I have researched more than 20 major projects that won the first prize of the Shanghai Science and Technology Award and found that most of the projects have been worked through two generations. Many of the winners started to enter a certain problem and technology field under the guidance of the instructor at the beginning of the reform and opening up. They generally made progress in about 10 years, and then further consolidated in 10 years, and finally got rewards and rewards. Behind the results is the effort of time and energy, a stable research environment, and continuous resources.
Huang Dan: The great achievements in science and technology in the past 40 years of reform and opening up have been the result of the centralized allocation of resources by the market and the government's “two hands†in the field of science and technology. But we need to see that the so-called "super engineering" is more of a technical achievement, and scientific achievements are still relatively weak.
Frankly speaking, without scientific guidance, the development of technology is hard to go further. Therefore, we must do more additions in respecting the different laws governing the development of science and technology, and do more subtraction on policy restrictions. Nowadays, the development of disciplines and professions is becoming more and more detailed. The policies of the public sector should enhance the scientific nature of “breaking the waste and reform†and achieve the coordination of macro-power and precision.
Liberation on Monday: Compared with developed countries such as the United States, what is the gap between China's scientific and technological strength?
Li Hui: The fifth national large-scale technical survey and technical foresight shows that among the 1,346 technologies, 219 of China have reached the international leading level, accounting for 16%; 404 technologies are not much different from the international advanced level. , accounting for 30%; another 723 technologies and the international advanced level have a certain gap, in the follow-up stage, accounting for 54%. In general, China's technology is still dominated by follow-up.
Huang Dan: China's leading and running in some areas of science and technology is largely driven by the "concentration of power to do big things" and the sense of mission of scientists. Faced with the challenges of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and international competition, it is necessary to establish a set of institutional mechanisms and policy systems to ensure that they are used to the best of their ability. In this sense, the gap between China and the United States is mainly reflected in the improvement of the system and the continuous innovation of the system.
Huang Qingqiao: To evaluate the development status, goals and direction of a country's science and technology, there should be rigorous and detailed indicators: First, look at the numbers, such as the number of scientific papers published, the number of scientific invention patents, the number of scientific and technological talents; the second is to see Contributions, such as the strength of national defense technology, the performance and competitiveness of technology products in various industrial sectors; the third is to look at originality, which is originally a weakness of China; the fourth is to look at the impact, including the scientific influence of scientific and technological talents, technology and technology products. And competitiveness; the fifth is to look at the future, such as institutional mechanisms, cultural environment support for scientific and technological innovation, and so on.
Only by understanding the development of science and technology in a country from all angles and from multiple angles will it not be self-respecting or meager. To fully realize the development, growth and progress of China's science and technology, we must rationally look at the gap between China's science and technology and the developed countries of the world; we must be active promoters and participants in China's scientific and technological development, rather than opposition and bystanders.
Liberation on Monday: There are reports that China spends more on crude oil than on crude oil. Is this true? What should China do to “strong core�
Huang Qingqiao: At present, the world's major chip design, production and supply companies are concentrated in the United States. China can be self-sufficient in the production of low-end chips. This is a strong support for "Made in China." But in the demand for high-end chips, we basically rely on imports.
The development of the chip industry follows a law called Moore's Law. The core idea is that when the price is constant, the number of components that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit will double every 18 to 24 months, and the performance will double. While Moore's Law promotes the continuous updating of chip technology, it also forces companies to continuously increase investment. This kind of investment and relatively long return period make the chip industry a high-risk industry. At the same time, it has made the chip industry produce the characteristics of “the big ones are big†and “fast fish eats slow fishâ€, and it is easy to form a natural monopoly.
According to past experience, with the support of national strategic funds, it is not difficult to develop an industry. However, this logic is not working in the chip industry. At least, the introduction of mature foreign technology alone is outdated. Because under the influence of "Moore's Law", introduction means backwardness, and backwardness means being eliminated by the market. This is the ruthless rules of the chip industry.
Li Hui: If China wants to "strong core", it must still have patience and be prepared to fight for a protracted war. I am eager to seek success, but not conducive to the development and production of chips. On this basis, we must strengthen the confidence of independent research and development, respect industry rules, scientific planning, not only willing to save money, but also focus on the key core technologies, but also must take the marketization path recognized by consumers. Other than that, there is no shortcut.
The core skills of our neck are not "international frontiers" and worth doing
Liberation on Monday: On the journey of a strong country of science and technology, can there be a leading figure like Qian Xuesen?
Huang Dan: The older generation of scientists, represented by Qian Xuesen and Qian Sanqiang, wrote the paper in the land of the motherland and applied scientific and technological achievements to China's comprehensive national strength. Their achievements are in the annals of history, and their spirits are everywhere.
In the scientific and technological breakthroughs of the new era, whether or not such a leading figure such as Qian Xuesen can occur depends on the trust and care of scientists by the state and society. For example, the team of academician Ma Weiming of the Naval Engineering University was under pressure and questioning in the early stage of the development of a certain type of mission, which eventually led to a bloody road and achieved new and greater success. Among them, it is inseparable from Ma Weiming's soul in the team. An outstanding leader in science and technology must have the courage and quality of "every enemy's sword" and will certainly bring out a "army" with combat effectiveness.
Huang Qingqiao: Under the background of the combination of science and technology and industrial engineering, the leading talents in science and technology are not only the overcomers of technical difficulties, but also the judges of technical difficulties, or the organizers who overcome difficulties. Without them, large scientific projects will be difficult to advance in an efficient and orderly manner.
Frankly speaking, cultivating scientists and developing high technology is ultimately aimed at national development and human well-being, not for publishing papers. However, there are now signs of reversing the purpose and means. The means of evaluation have become an end in itself, which is terrible.
General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that it is necessary to change the essays, patents, and funds as the standard for talent evaluation through reforms. It is impossible to let the red tape of the scientists' hands and feet, and the infinite reports and approvals will not delay the scientists' energy. For contemporary China, we need to stand at the forefront of world science and make Chinese contributions to human knowledge innovation, but we should pay more attention to solving the urgent needs of economic and social development. In the fields of high-end chips and aero-engine technology, it is not likely to publish a paper, but to produce a "real guy."
Liberation on Monday: For some of the "real guys" that China has come up with, some Westerners have accused "technical plagiarism." How to clarify and refute this?
Li Hui: It is inevitable that the late-developing countries will be accused by the first-time countries of "cottage". Germany, now known as “high-end manufacturingâ€, was accused by the British of “plagiarism†in the mid to late 19th century.
After 40 years of reform and opening up, China's science and technology is getting higher and higher. There are various debates on so-called intellectual property issues, but it also shows that our level is getting closer to the developed countries. Now, the world is facing a new problem, that is, the issue of technological change. Others have built fuel cars first, and you are going to build electric cars now. If it is made, the starter of the fuel car will have to worry. This is not a question of the plagiarism of the first mover, but an issue of the era of industrial subversion. China has a certain foundation in the deep integration of big data, Internet, artificial intelligence and the real economy, and it is likely to lead a new wave of innovation, which is actually more concerned by some Western countries.
Liberation Monday: What shortcomings should be added from "Made in China" to "Made in China"?
Huang Qingqiao: It is very important to reverse the R&D orientation of excessive pursuit of short-term benefits. For some time, projects that are expected to make breakthroughs through short-term research are easily supported, and systemic and difficult key core technologies are ignored. Now, the national level has recognized this problem and has launched a series of medium and long-term key technology research and development plans, but the implementation effect is not particularly satisfactory. To solve this problem, it is necessary to further break the barriers of local and departmental interests.
At the same time, we must pay attention to the problem of weak system support for high-tech research and development. In terms of the chip industry, from the principle of integrated circuits to the production of various types of chips, there are many high-tech technologies in the middle. One of the links is blocked and the development of the entire industry will be stagnant. From a technical point of view, China's high-end chip industry is subject to people, that is, key production equipment, test packaging technology and technology have not yet reached the most advanced level. Therefore, we must consider and focus on breakthroughs.
In addition, we must be wary of the "international frontier" trap. In recent years, the voice and policy orientation of running and leading the "international frontier" has gradually become stronger. This is not wrong in itself. However, in the high-tech field, many core technologies, processes, formulas, etc. are not so-called "international frontiers". Developed countries have mastered these top-secret core technologies even half a century ago.
Therefore, we must break a misunderstanding of understanding: Do not think that it is not an "international frontier", there is no value, it is not worth doing. It is of course important to lead the world's technological frontiers, but it is not the core technology of the international technology frontier but the core of our neck. It is equally important and urgent for China's development. Therefore, scientific and technological evaluation must be pragmatic and must meet the actual needs of China's development.
Li Hui: Taking Shanghai as an example, we are currently building a globally influential science and technology innovation center, focusing on enhancing the concentration of innovative resources, the influence of innovation results, the leadership of emerging industries, the attractiveness of innovative environments, and regional innovation. Radiation force. Strengthening this "five forces" will promote the establishment of an ecosystem suitable for technological innovation, and will enable science, innovation, and industry to move away from "single-handedness" and achieve joint development of the group.
Mastering the methodology of science both breaks ignorance and gains awe
Liberation Monday: Recently, a rumor that "the United States can smash the Internet" has sparked heated debate. In the face of pseudoscience and even various rumors, how should scientists come out?
Huang Qingqiao: The result of scientific "missing voice" is rumors and even social panic. Therefore, in the face of major topics such as cybersecurity and vaccine safety, scientists should “sound†rather than “sound†in the first place, and responsibly promote the status of a specific technology and the ways and attitudes to deal with the negative effects of technology. Wait.
The problem now is that many scientists are unwilling, disdainful or even afraid to do science. In some institutions, scientific research workers who engage in popular science work are considered to be unfair, and even think that only those who are not high-level and who can't do scientific research will do science. At the same time, the interpretation of hot scientific issues by scientific researchers has been misunderstood and misinterpreted more or less, and has been subject to criticism and even embarrassment. This made people who had been passionate about science work become reluctant to "get angry". This situation is indeed regrettable.
In fact, the in-depth development of science and technology and the refinement of the division of labor have created the dilemma of “interlacing like a mountainâ€. As a result, there are two more extreme views in society:
One is over-optimistic, and believes that China's scientific and technological development has achieved brilliant achievements, which inevitably produces pride and arrogance.
The other is the pessimistic faction. It believes that the level of China's science and technology development is far from the developed countries such as the United States, which leads to loss of confidence and self-reliance.
From the perspective of the overall situation of science and technology development and national self-confidence, we need to give greater support to the free transformation and positive behavior of scientists and "science families."
Liberation on Monday: Many popular science materials simply convey the view that "science and technology can solve all problems". Is this really scientific? Is it also necessary to break the "superstition" of science?
Huang Dan: "Scientific omnipotence" itself is pseudoscience, and questioning is the spiritual core of science. Compared with human understanding, the world we live in is broad and infinite. In the process of understanding the world and transforming the world, human beings through intellectual labor will never stop exploring the meaning of our existence and open up the space of cognition. This is the value of science.
In real life, education and practice are the two grips to break the "scientific superstition." In the spread of ideas, we must interpret the history of human science and technology development from the perspective of world history, so that people can break the ignorance and gain awe; in solving problems, we must talk about principles and experience, let more people master Scientific methodology.
Liberation Monday: With the application of artificial intelligence, genetic modification and other technologies, some people have doubts and even panic about the development of science and technology. Excuse me, will technology lead the way of human society?
Huang Dan: A new wave of technology will inevitably profoundly change all aspects of humanity. For example, an increasingly aging society may require the development of robotic care technology. On the other hand, terrorism can also be transmitted virally through the Internet, and high-tech crimes continue to challenge the bottom line of society. We need to have more wisdom and courage to anticipate and respond to the constantly changing world. A basic position is that science itself has no good or evil, and it is important to carry out philosophical torture and inquiry.
Li Hui: Preventing the abuse of science and technology and the spread of scientific negative effects are long-term topics in the fields of philosophy of science and sociology of science. They also form some basic rules, including the issue of responsible innovation. In real life, many people enjoy the convenience brought by innovation. For example, sharing a bicycle makes the “last mile†simple, and the network car makes travel more convenient, but the shared bicycles that are randomly stopped and lit cause congestion on the road traffic, and the mobile phone taxi will make the roadside move facing no car. Dilemma. It should be said that there will not be a lot of purely irresponsible innovation, but the assessment of the degree of responsibility for innovation must be kept up.
Huang Qingqiao: Understanding the three-dimensional image of technology helps people grasp the future.
First, a history of the development of human society, especially the history of development in modern times, is a history in which science overcomes ignorance, science overcomes superstition, and science leads progress. Without the development of science and technology, there will be no modern civilization.
Second, in contemporary society, the negative effects of science and technology are becoming more and more obvious. Negative effects on science and technology can neither be shunned, evaded, or talked about discoloration and panic.
It is worth mentioning that we must have a sense of eternal risk. With this in mind, we must be prepared for danger and establish a sound risk response mechanism. At the same time, we must understand the duality of risk with a scientific attitude. From a positive perspective, it offers human society more choices and opportunities for choice. By actively creating to seize this opportunity, you can turn your dreams into reality.
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