**Steel Market Outlook for Week 48 of 2013 (November 25–December 1)**
The current macroeconomic environment remains stable, and steel mill output has seen a slight decline. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily crude steel output of key enterprises in mid-November was 1.75 million tons, down 0.7% from the previous month. Nationally, the average daily crude steel production stood at 2,131,900 tons, a decrease of 0.57% on a monthly basis. With the steel market entering its off-season, demand is gradually weakening. As a result, the domestic steel market is expected to experience minor fluctuations this week.
According to the weekly price forecast model from the Information Research Center, steel prices are expected to remain relatively stable during the period of December 2–6, 2013. Long product prices may see a slight decline, while plate prices should remain steady. The national steel price index is projected to fluctuate around 138.7 points, with an average steel price of approximately 3,610 yuan, showing a small variation of about 20 yuan. The long steel price index is expected to hover around 156.1 points, slightly declining by about 0.3 points, while the sheet price index is expected to stay around 117.5 points, with minimal movement of about 0.1 point.
Market research data from the Information Research Center indicates that domestic long product prices will likely decline slightly this week, while plate prices will remain stable. Raw material prices, including iron ore, are expected to show minor fluctuations. Coke prices may rise slightly, scrap prices will remain steady, and billet prices are expected to decrease slightly.
In the 48th week of 2013 (November 25–29), the national comprehensive steel price index reached 138.7 points, up 0.02% from the previous week and 5.31% year-on-year. The long products price index (LGMI) was 156.4 points, rising 0.12% from the prior week but falling 2.33% compared to the same period last year. The sheet price index was 117.4 points, down 0.14% from the previous week and 9.71% lower than the same period last year.
During the 48th week, the prices of 17 categories and 44 specifications of iron and steel raw materials and products were monitored. Major steel product prices remained relatively stable, with some varieties showing slight increases, others slightly decreasing, and a few remaining unchanged. Specifically, five varieties saw a rise, four fell, and 23 remained flat—more than last week. Sixteen varieties declined, with no change compared to the previous week.
Domestic steel raw material prices have been steadily increasing, with iron ore prices also rising. Meanwhile, coke, scrap, and billet prices remained stable.
This week, the steel market showed a slight upward trend. In the rebar market, the performance of the main contract 1405 improved, with the closing price rising by 56 points from the previous week. The main force position for 1405 was 152.3 million hands, a decrease of 48,310 hands, with most reductions coming from short positions.
National steel stocks continued to decline for the seventh consecutive week. On November 29, the total social stock of steel in 29 key cities across the country reached 12.4471 million tons, a decrease of 98,700 tons or 0.79% from the previous week. The decline rate slowed slightly compared to the previous week's 0.15%. Wire rod stocks dropped by 0.95%, while rebar stocks fell by 0.90%. Plate stocks decreased by 1.15%, with a slight slowdown in the decline rate.
Looking at broader economic factors, industrial profits for enterprises above the designated size increased by 13.7% year-on-year from January to October, reaching 4,626.3 billion yuan. The profit growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than in the first nine months of the year. Among these, the main activity profit was 468.84 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year.
In the steel industry, profits reached 127 billion yuan from January to September, a 39.9% increase year-on-year. However, in October, large and medium-sized steel enterprises reported a total profit of 1.716 billion yuan, a sharp decline of 47.46% compared to the same period last year.
On the demand side, shipbuilding activity declined significantly, with completed ship capacity dropping by 25.4% year-on-year through October. However, new orders surged by 183% year-on-year. In the mechanical sector, internal combustion engine sales rose by 5.42% in October, reflecting a modest recovery in certain sectors.
Overall, the steel market continues to face challenges due to weak demand and high inventory levels, but with some signs of stabilization in prices and limited supply adjustments, the outlook for the coming week remains cautiously optimistic.
Heilongjiang Junhe Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.junhejiancai.com