Photovoltaic is stimulated by policy to idle capacity or resurgence

Core Tip: Industry insiders expect that after the country's detailed rules on distributed generation are clear, the future distributed photovoltaic power generation projects will see a huge increase, but after the previous round of overcapacity, a new round of investment will come more vigilant. .

Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the Interim Measures for the Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects (the “Measures”). The “Measures” encourage all types of power users to invest in the construction and operation of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, and once again clarify that the grid is settled monthly and corporate. subsidy. Industry insiders expect that after the country's detailed rules on distributed generation are clear, the future distributed photovoltaic power generation projects will see a huge increase, but after the previous round of overcapacity, a new round of investment will come more vigilant.

Distributed power generation rules are clear

The Interim Measures pointed out that all types of power users, investment enterprises, specialized contract energy service companies, individuals, etc. are encouraged to invest in the construction and operation of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects. Distributed photovoltaic power generation implements an operation mode of “spontaneous use, surplus power access, nearby consumption, and power grid regulation”. Power grid enterprises use advanced technology to optimize grid operation management, provide system support for distributed photovoltaic power generation operations, and ensure safe use of electricity by power users. Encourage the project investment business entity and the power users in the same power supply area to realize distributed photovoltaic power generation in a variety of ways with the cooperation of power grid enterprises.

The industry generally believes that in the rules, the total amount of control, provincial filing, subsidies by the power grid monthly transfer, monthly settlement of surplus electricity on-grid electricity tariffs, renewable power allowed in the development zone, etc. become a bright spot. In 2014, the transition of photovoltaic construction to a distributed-oriented direction was relatively certain.

Shen Wenwan, a new energy industry analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, said that there are many practical difficulties in the operation of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects. It takes about half a year to approve a previous project. Now investing in distributed power generation projects only needs to be filed at the local level. The efficiency has been greatly improved, and the scale of distributed power generation projects will increase greatly in the future.

Policy stimulus is expected to show a distributed "trend"

Recently, the National Energy Administration said that the national installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is expected to increase by 10 million kilowatts. At the end of 2013, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power will reach 16.5GW, including 5.7GW of distributed photovoltaic projects and 10.8GW of photovoltaic power plants. The scale is expected to be 11.8 GW, of which about 7.6 GW is distributed. The relevant policies will be more inclined to distributed power plants next year. It is expected that distributed photovoltaic power generation will account for about 60% of the newly installed capacity.

In fact, with the large-scale construction of concentrated photovoltaic power plants in western China, the problem has already appeared. In some areas, low electricity consumption has been unable to fully absorb these electricity, and the power system acceptance capacity limit cannot be developed on a large scale. Therefore, the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, encourage self-use, can meet the large consumption demand in the eastern region, but also reduce the power transmission costs, is the main development direction of domestic photovoltaic power generation.

At the same time, the cost problem that has been plaguing large-scale use of photovoltaic power generation has also been broken. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that around 2020, photovoltaic power generation will achieve a cheaper Internet access, and no longer rely on state subsidies, but directly into the development of market mechanisms.

Therefore, experts predict that China will have a higher probability of completing the new PV installation target in 2014. However, due to factors such as inadequate policy support and unclear business model, there is a low expected risk in completing the distributed new installation target.

Need to be alert to the resurgence of idle capacity

Stimulated by the continued fermentation of favorable policies, the domestic PV industry seems to see a glimmer of hope. However, if the PV market is stimulated by domestic policies and other factors, and the price rises to a certain profit, the possibility of expansion of domestic idle capacity is not ruled out.

Wang Yingchun, general manager of Zhengxin Solar, said that the recovery of the photovoltaic industry mainly comes from the stimulation of national policies. Various departments have issued a number of supporting policies for subsidies, tax rebates, electricity price grid connection and financing, which have formed strong support for the domestic PV market application. . In particular, subsidies for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are relatively strong.

According to statistics, there are more than 300 photovoltaic industrial parks in more than 600 cities in China, of which more than 20 billion are more than 10 billion yuan. Each local government has support policies that distorted the role of market allocation resources. Wang Bohua, secretary-general of the Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, admitted that some idle capacity has started again, and the situation of serious imbalance between supply and demand should be prevented from reappearing.

Faced with the new round of expansion of the photovoltaic industry, the industry believes that although some PV companies, especially small ones, have gone bankrupt after nearly two years of industrial adjustment, they can be re-produced once they receive orders. .

Overcapacity of photovoltaics is inseparable from local governments' blind projects for GDP. To completely solve the problem of excess, we must break the inherent interest chain, minimize government intervention, maximize the role of the market, encourage mergers and acquisitions, and optimize allocation. Resources.

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